Zach Slaton, author of A Beautiful Numbers Game blog, recently asked to take a look at the massive Transfer Price Index database, to apply some advanced statistical analysis to the findings. What follows is a fairly complex, but also compelling, look at the correlation between transfer spending and league position.
It’s one thing Alex Ferguson misleading the press about the plight of Liverpool Football Club, quite another them lapping it up like suckling pups. Of course, not that you’d expect a lot more from the worst breed of hacks with their pre-set narrative.
Money has been disappearing from Liverpool’s coffers, never to be seen again. But this is not a recent development. While the American owners may have personal profit as their single raison d’être, this is a problem dating back to the days of Graeme Souness.
At present, several members of this site are beavering away with analysis for the monumental Transfer Price Index (TPI) project, which not only looks at every signing in Premier League history…
In football, as in life, wealth is relative. Compared with teams Liverpool are expected to finish miles ahead of, Liverpool’s squad cost and wage bill looks pretty healthy. But when compared with the teams they’re expected to compete with – and, in some people’s eyes, finish above (based not on reality but history) – then it looks less impressive.
Given the standard of contributors to, and posters on, The Tomkins Times, not to mention some of the ideas developed in discussions, I think it’s time to work on a ‘combined effort’ book, to pool the collective knowledge.
How much value is removed from a squad each season in terms of personnel who, due to age or contracts running down, are lost to a club? Whether or not players are bought and sold for profit, there will always be the inevitable wastage.
A look at the best and the worst buys in the Premier League era, first with the standard fees, then worked out in relation to TPI (“football inflation”). Does Michael Owen feature in the best or worst buys of Premier League history? And who is the biggest bargain of this time?
“The Need to Balance the Books”. Having previously looked at Gross spend – which, in effect, deals with the boost of new players irrespective of whether anyone is sold – it’s time to focus on the Net figures, which take into account money raised by sales. This is particularly important for ‘properly run’ clubs, i.e. those that cannot write off expensive flops with a shrug of the shoulders.
“The Benefit of New Players” … The notion that individual signings take time to settle (or may never settle) is valid. And this may well be at the heart of why significant investment works so well, and leads, within 24 months, to trophies and higher league positions. The injection of new blood seems fairly essential to boost a team; but additional riches give more licence for a hit-and-miss strategy
