Likelihoods From The mSq£R Model – Updated Table

Likelihoods From The mSq£R Model – Updated Table
September 10, 2013 zslaton

By Zach Slaton.

After what seemed like a summer that would not end, the off-season transfer window “slammed shut” last Monday evening, and with it clubs’ hopes of making over their squads in preparation for the next four months of play.

The most drawn out transfer of the summer – Gareth Bale to Real Madrid – was finalised on the last day of the window, as was Luis Suarez’s near-term future with Liverpool. For all the difficulties of both players’ transfer sagas, it appears both Liverpool and Tottenham made modest upgrades in the meantime. For once it was Manchester United making what is widely viewed as a panic buy on the final day of the window, while Arsenal’s summer of frustration was largely turned around with their purchase of Mesut Özil, last year’s most creative player in La Liga (who would have also been the most created player in the EPL).  Chelsea and Manchester City continued to spend the most on a net basis, while Cardiff City and Southampton ended up being the fourth and fifth biggest net spenders in an attempt to avoid relegation come season’s end.

Readers of The Tomkins Times know that it’s not just net spend that matters, but accumulation of players-as-assets over time that helps determine a team’s capability to compete for higher table positions.  The Times is in its second year of using the mSq£R model to forecast squad valuation impacts on table position likelihoods, and a pre-season projection of the final 2013/14 table was provided in August based upon squad valuations as of August 2, 2013.  The ever-excellent and meticulous Graeme Riley has catalogued all of the last minute summer transfer window dealings in his Transfer Price Index database, and the resultant Sq£ values have been integrated into the 2013/14 mSq£R model.  Herewith are the impacts of the final month of transfer activity on each club’s Sq£ valuations, as well as the Sq£ projected impact on table likelihoods.

Sq£ Valuations

As of 2nd August, twelve of the seventeen non-promoted teams increased their squad valuations resulting in a median Sq£ of £77.1M for a 12.5% increase versus the median value in the second half of the 2012/13 season. Activity in the intervening month changed those numbers just a bit – thirteen teams had positive Sq£ growth from the second half of last year, but overall growth in Sq£ values was a bit more tepid than originally estimated.

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