An Analysis of the Wisdom of the Long-Shot

And who at Liverpool is good at the art…

Ever since Paul, Chris and I went to the Swansea victory at home nearly six years ago, I’ve had a bit of fascination with the balance between taking a pot shot from range and working a better opportunity to shoot closer to goal or recycle, be patient and wait for another chance to create. That five-nil victory over the Swans was a strange one: we attempted 35 shots, which at the time was the highest figure across Europe that weekend, but this analysis – done weeks after match – illustrated that players often make the ‘wrong’ choice when faced with an opportunity to try their luck. The very fact the phrases used for shots outside the box range from “pot shots” to “trying their luck” should tell us something about the chances of a goal coming from one.

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