How Will Our Final Six Games Pan Out?

How Will Our Final Six Games Pan Out?
April 2, 2014 Chris Rowland

by Chris Rowland.

After a little hibernation, Symposium is back, and with the burning question du jour – what does the esteemed repository of football knowledge aka the TTT Symposium panel think is going to happen in our remaining six games?

Perhaps unsurprisingly given the rising tide of euphoria surrounding the Reds, plenty climbed into this one:

Jon Rushton: West Ham (A): Its these games that make me the most nervous. We’re so superior to West Ham, and there will be no expectation even from Hammers fans that they will get anything out of the game. But we’re on such a good run, but – as Chelsea proved against Palace – there’s no such thing as a sure thing. I’ll have to go for a win of course, but I don’t expect us to win all six games and I am nervous about dropping points in one of the ‘easier’ away games.

Man City (H): I think we’ll win comfortably. City have a deep and talented squad, but they can only put eleven players on the pitch – and their best eleven won’t score as many as ours. Anfield will be absolutely buzzing, and it just seems fated that we will win this game.

Norwich (A): Norwich will be dreading this. Quite right too. I think we’ll win.

Chelsea (H): This is tougher than the City game, because Mourinho will already have a plan in place to come away from the game with something. And he’ll approach looking for a draw. Tough game this.

Palace (A): Win to the reds!

Newcastle (H): If we go into this game with a realistic possibility of winning the league, then this game will be the one that will test the players nerves. I don’t care how composed they are, this will be a nerve-tingling, shit-a-brick moment for every reds player, and for the fans too. If City win the title, its expected. If Liverpool win it – its historic. Game-changing. Games against Newcastle can be bonkers too.

But – that said – if we go into the final day of the season with a realistic shot of winning it – a) Brendan Rodgers is the best Liverpool manager of the Premier League era; b) we’ll win the league. I’ve no doubt.

Honest expectations of how many points we’ll get from the remaining 18? I think we’ll score 16, dropping points only against Chelsea – and I think we’ll win the league too. We’re that good, and I defy anyone reading this to deny that there isn’t a feeling in their bones that we’re going to finish the job this season. It just feels…. Right.

I’m officially allowing myself to get my hopes up, regardless of the possible disappointment that could follow. And it feels good, a complete reversal of the last few years. This team has reminded me of why I follow sports, and why I support Liverpool.

Andrew Beasley (Beez): As it stands, Liverpool are better than every team they have to play, because on current form they’re better than every team in the Premier League. In terms of winning runs, the Reds are also better than every team in Europe’s big five leagues, and in terms of six game form, they’re better than every single team in Europe at the moment. Brendan’s boys are on the march, and no mistake.

I’m very confident that Liverpool can win every single game, if viewed in isolation, but football is rarely that simple; no team in the Premier League era has ever won their last fourteen games, after all. In my mind, for the purposes of assessing how Liverpool might perform, the six fixtures break down into three pairs.

Norwich and Newcastle are six points written blind. Suárez lives on Canary meat, and Newcastle have given up for the season already so the last day should be a breeze. No worries there.

Crystal Pulis and West Ham will provide the kind of alehouse rubbish they always do, and it’s certainly true to say that we have often struggled with physical teams in recent times. However, neither team is likely to be relegated, so don’t have quite so much to play for, and there may even be a party atmosphere at Selhurst Park when we roll into town for their final home game. I therefore think our greater will and determination (plus of course, pure footballing quality) will see us home in these two.

At the time of writing this, I’m going to assume that all three title challengers will win their games this weekend. City would therefore come to Anfield four points behind but with two games in hand; will they be happy with a draw that would wrestle the title from being in Liverpool’s hands to within their own? I don’t think they’ll set out their stall for a point, as quite simply they’re too good a team to think like that, but if it’s tight, the longer the game goes on the more they’ll think a draw is a good result.  Hopefully this leads to a little indecision on their part, and Liverpool will win.

Which leaves one match, against the king-of-the-parked-bus-when-necessity-dictates: Jose Mourinho.

Aside from their trip to Anfield, Chelsea play nobody who is currently higher than tenth in the Premier League table. The Blues have recently shown they’re capable of losing at Villa and Palace, but at the same time their remaining fixtures are ones that you would expect them to win. I thoroughly expect them to travel to Merseyside with the primary aim of dogging out a draw, with the hope of pinching a 1-0.

Unfortunately for Liverpool, I think that poor, underfunded and Champions League-laden Chelsea will return to West London with a point. Even so, I make that five wins, one draw, eighty-seven points, and, if the Sports Club Stats website is to be believed, a 94% chance of winning the league. I’ll take that.

Chris Rowland: With all the focus now on winning the damned thing, we shouldn’t overlook the significance of the 7 point gap over 4th placed Arsenal, which would not only secure CL football next season but would see us avoid that potentially tricky play-off in midsummer during a World Cup season.

But I digress. Those six games. I don’t expect us to win them all. We can draw one, maybe even two, and still win the league (provided neither Chelsea nor City is a draw). Palace could be tricky if they’re still in relegation trouble, but perhaps less so if they’re safe by then? West Ham and Norwich will not be safe when we visit them, and a draw at either of those is quite possible and less than disastrous. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mourinho’s lot ground out a draw either. So here goes: West Ham (A) – draw. City (H) -win. Norwich (A) – win. Chelsea (H) – draw. Palace (A) – win. Newcastle (H) – win. Four wins, two draws, 14 more points, total 85. Enough? Probably not, City will end on 86 points if they draw one as well as losing at Anfield. So that would leave us two points short, as they have a better goal difference (just). But it’s very fine margins now. Convert that West Ham draw into a victory and that’s it, job’s a good ‘un!

Alex Tate (Tattva): I’m anxious. It’s a natural state for me. But with relation to Liverpool this season, I’m anxious because it’s so unexpected, I don’t know how to cope. Will a fall now affect how we view the season? Or after 32 games why would we fail with six to go?

Even if we don’t win the title, I don’t want our form to take a dip. Another team can win through being better, not because we choked. We have a varied run in against a spread of teams; some fighting for titles, some the right to visit Anfield next season and some teams playing because, well, you need to play 38 before you go on holiday.

It’s West Ham this week, and they have eased themselves with a win against Sunderland, a good result for us. There may be less for them to play for now. I expect our skill and guile to out-manoeuvre their hustle and bustle. Not by much but I feel three points will be added to our tally.

It won’t be easy as the Hammers have a tough run in and aren’t totally safe, but if they chase they will be exposed, which plays in to our hands.

A brilliant game for all concerned, when the Citizens visit. Great playing sides, both chasing the title and two sets of fans with little, if any, bad blood. The neutrals will see it as a battle of the two most likely.

Hard to predict. We are playing very well, but could our run falter? If the silky Man City turn up and play against the adventurous LFC, expect samba soccer, expressive football and a large dose of goals. Any high scoring result is possible. Perhaps 3-3.

Norwich offer so little resistance in all quarters, it’s three points in the bag. They have easier fixtures before they face us and will hope to get something there. Then they face the Gooners and Chelsea after. The Canaries are scared witless and will be lucky to survive.

Chelsea will be tough. They will want to beat us, it’s more than three points to them. As they have easier fixtures, the gamble will be to take a draw for them. Can they soak up our pressure? This will be a decisive weekend. Edging towards a draw, just, over a home win.

Palace have a varied run in, and if they are to stay up it is likely to be achieved before we pop down to south London. Pulis has improved them, so they’re a better bet to stay up than many others in the struggle at the bottom. But still, three points.

If it comes down to this game? I’m backing us for a win. I always enjoy us playing the Toon, having lived there I have an interest, even if it isn’t a desire to see them do well. But they are playing for nothing, the Toon are mid-table, and most will already be thinking of a beach somewhere watching the World Cup.

This leaves us with 14 points from 18, and a total of 85. Which will leave us second, just behind Man City. I’m unsure how the number of games will affect them, but I think they’ll take it by one or two points.

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Jonny Christopher (Jonny C): I only have one concern from the remaining fixtures. It’s not Chelsea nor is it Sheik City.

It’s that other power house from London. West Ham United. The only thing in our favour is that we don’t have rafa in the dug out. Otherwise I’d say this metaphorical red rag to fat Sam would be a stone wall three points for them.

There are a few other things that concern me though. Upton Park. I spent many of my uni days watching the reds when they came to visit West Ham. And it was always a very tough place to go. They are like the proverbial yappy dog. Tiny, pointless but still like to square up to the big boys.

And fat Sam. He’ll want to yap. Lots. Straight down the phone to Sir Alex. And collect his doggy biscuit at the same time.

Apart from that it’ll be fine. Oh. Wait. I forgot. Andrew ‘point to prove’ Carroll.

I suspect like Jonjo Shelvey before him, he has a point to prove. And remember Jonjo was rated by Brendan. Poor Andy was treated a bit like an outcast. He’ll have a point to prove and no amount of boyzone concert love from Kenny is going to help.

I suspect fat Sam’s teamtalk will consist of three words. Long. Ball. Andy.

In my mind if we win at West Ham we win the title. The icing on the cake would be a Chelsea spanking.

Whatever happens it’s been fun. I haven’t felt this tall, this proud for years…..since Rafa really.

And for that Brendan Rodgers, for that Sir, I say thank you. It won’t be long till your portrait sits proudly next to Bill, Bob, Kenny, and Rafa on *that flag*.

Success has many fathers you see. And you Brendan are next.

Gary Wilson (Garythespud):  West Ham – Crash bang wallop. Allardyce hammered on the counter. 2-0.Man City – Biggest game of past 20 years bar Istanbul? 3-1 win but will be proverbial rollercoaster. Last minute third after 20 mins of City pressure to send crowd into wild ecstacy.
Norwich – Luis turns up and scores three. 4-0.
Chelsea – Mourinho turns up, sulks. They’re out of it. 1-1.
Palace – Torn to the ground like the original and its replacement. 4-0.
Newcastle – Party time. Never going to stop the red hordes, are they? 3-0.Title is ours as Man City and Chelsea drop too many points. Liverpool 87. Man City 86. Chelsea 83.Cue: fevered celebrations like VE day turned up to 11. Much kissing to be done (I am up for this!) and much alcohol/juice/whatever is the fancy to be imbibed.

Alexander Papas (Yiannis): A tough one to answer here, as I’m basically damning myself with hope no matter what. If it’s what I want to happen, we win all six. If it’s what I hope will happen, we win all six. If I base it on current form, we win all six. If I base it on some sort of team comparison, we win all six (with home advantage giving us the edge in the closer matches). However I slice it up, I have to say that we will win all six games, and we all know that can’t possibly happen…

… can it?

It would be far easier to predict (or at least predict comfortably) if we didn’t all know what was riding on these results, and also far easier if we weren’t already on an eight-game winning run (because we all know those get ended sooner or later). However, I’m going to go for broke here, as I’d rather (metaphorically) die in hope than live in fear, so I’m saying six wins and the title for us, broken down as below:

West Ham (A): 1-4 – A goal for Andy Carroll, assisted by Downing, will get the pundits saying “maybe Liverpool shouldn’t have let them go”, before everybody realises that no Sam Allardyce team could ever contain the SASAS. Suarez to break the 30 goal barrier.

Man City (H): 3-2 – A nervy, mistake-filled match, with at least one own goal and maybe even a sending off (hopefully not one of ours), where the lead will probably change at least twice. Gerrard to get either the winning goal or winning assist with around five minutes remaining.

Norwich (A): 2-3 plus Suarez (at least 2-6) – Just as the previous win might heap seemingly-unbearable pressure on the Liverpool players, we come up against our favourite team. The other players will get three goals between them and Suarez will get however many he feels like, breaking the PL era goalscorer record in the process. Norwich’s goals come late and make no difference.

Chelsea (H): 1-0 – With the focus pre-match all on “another Mourinho masterplan”, Rodgers delivers one of his own, nullifying the Chelsea attack and grabbing a goal from a set piece, either Suarez direct or a defender from Gerrard’s delivery.

Crystal Palace (A): 1-3 – Rinse and repeat from the Anfield encounter (early goals win the game before half time, Palace get a consolation after the break)

Newcastle (H): 6-0 – A home game for the title against a team that historically switch off at the ends of seasons if they have nothing to play for? Halle-fucking-lujah! Suarez to get achingly close to Roger Hunt’s 41 goal “true” Liverpool season record (with all due respect to God), before being subbed off at the death to the biggest round of applause at Anfield in decades. Gerrard to have “something in his eye” as the game winds down (everybody in the stadium to follow shortly afterwards).

Russel Lunt (Thundyr): Win the last six games of the season, lift the title. Simple. It might get simpler – draw with Chelsea and City, while City don’t win at, say, Goodison. That would do it too, as long as we keep racking up the goal difference. Just for the record, W4 D2 will be enough to finish ahead of Chelsea, regardless of any permutations.

I do however feel that winning the title will require beating Man City at Anfield. An achievable goal, certainly, but hard to predict at this point. Besides, I’m not sure when last any club won 14 in a row in this league, maybe never, so I’d have to play it safe and say we won’t do it either especially since we still have to play both remaining title rivals.

Let’s look at this backwards. Can anyone see Liverpool folding and not beating Newcastle at Anfield if we’re top on the last day? A team led by someone who doesn’t know when the game is lost? Mr. Never Say Die himself, Luis Suarez. You thought I’d say Steven Gerrard? My point exactly. Win.

And let’s get Norwich out the way – Suarez scored a hat-trick on each of his last two visits to Carrow Road. Win.

The rest are a bit more awkward. West Ham and Palace have exactly the kind of managers we struggle against; park the bus, hit it long, and hope for a lucky break or a 0-0. Both are also away games, which make it harder. These two games for me will define our title qualities.  If we don’t have the stomach for the fight we won’t win both; could even finish D1 L1. But I think we should have the fight for the first, and Palace might be playing only for pride come May (or will already be safe). However, this is a different Liverpool side than the flakes from recent history, so I’m tipping us to win both in scrappy, nervy affairs. Win Win.

Mourinho’s plan of having no quality strikers and playing for 0-0 at half-time has backfired spectacularly over the last month. But the meanest defence in the league vs the strongest attack suggests a likely stalemate unless we score early. I think the result depends entirely on whom Mourinho wants to crown king. Draw.

City. I have a feeling Gerrard will pick up the tenth yellow in the blood-and-guts encounter at West Ham. And then the future players of this club will take the field vs City and try to win the title by playing our best formation with our best combinations on the park despite lacking the vision Gerrard brings to our play. I’d back our youthful midfield diamond and the Red Cafu. Otherwise Gerrard plays in a kind of “Merseyside Derby” that City’s dandies won’t like. Win!

Liverpool are always up for the big games. All six are big games, as long as we don’t relax against Norwich and avoid Howard Webb. YNWA.

Krishen Bhautoo (Krishaldo): West Ham (A) – Big Fat Sam will play a 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 and hope to contain us. I spoke to a West Ham fan who said this is all he will do, hoping to hit us on the break. And you know how we struggle against big forwards? And you know how players always score against their former clubs? Just saying…… But I’ll take a heart attack-inducing 1-0. Unless we score early, then it could be party time.

Man City (H) – After our 2-1 defeat at their place a few City fans said that, apart from Bayern, we were the best team they had played by miles. I think we will have more desire than they will and the Anfield roar will see us through. 3-1.

Norwich (A) – Norwich + Suarez = Goal Fest. Anything from 1 to 100-0.

Chelsea (H) – Maureen will be hurting. His forwards don’t score and goals from the middle have dried up. He will motivate them for this one as, even though BR is his ‘friend’, he still hates us. I can see him going for it as opposed to sitting back as he has done before (trying to out-think BR)and we will pick them off, plus we will have more rest as they will have CL semis either side of us (assuming they progress past PSG). 2-0

Palace (A) – See West Ham.

Newcastle (H) – Will they be up for it? They’re already mentally on their holidays. They almost certainly won’t finish in the bottom half or get into Europe.

I think I’ve just put six wins! Whilst it is completely plausible that we will win all six, it is highly unlikely. But luckily it is likely that our rivals won’t either. We just need to make sure we get more points than they do, and City have a few tough games too (Southampton, Everton away and Palace away).

We have to be completely motivated and up for it for every minute of every game. These players have the opportunity to become legends. I BELIEVE we can win this. We must win this.

I’m off for a lie down.

Jamie Mclaughlin: With six games to go and the Reds sitting top of the league, it certainly is ‘squeaky bum time’.

Our next fixture away to West Ham sees us square up to former players Stewart Downing and Andy Carroll but I don’t see them posing a threat and I forecast a 3-1 win for Liverpool with our attacking threat proving too much.

The following week Liverpool face title challengers Manchester City and I think this fixture will decide where the Premiership trophy goes. I believe the Reds’ support will create an atmosphere similar to the famous European nights and Brendan Rodgers’ men will edge it 2-1.

Liverpool will then travel to Norwich which is a fixture that Luis Suarez enjoys with a tremendous scoring record against the Canaries, and I can’t see Liverpool slipping up and I’ll go for a 3-0 win.

Liverpool then return home to play Chelsea in another key clash but with the run of adrenalin that the Reds are on I can’t see Mourinho’s men stopping Rodgers’ men either, and I’ll go for a 3-1 win and a step closer to the title.

The second last game of the season is away to Crystal Palace and I fear Liverpool dropping points here with Tony Pullis’ men providing our toughest test in the title run-in and I think we will only manage a 1-1 draw.

This leaves us with our last game of the season at home to Newcastle and I think we will 4-0 in an emphatic win to win our first title in 24 years and I hope I am right with my prediction.

James Keen: West Ham, away – potentially very tricky. We have traditionally struggled against rough direct teams and Allardyce has been a thorn in our side for a while now. But, Stoke away gives me hope that we can now bulldozer that sort of side. We will score. How will they get the ball? Although logically I can see why West Ham will be a tricky game I just don’t think they are good enough to beat us. 3-1 to the Reds.

Manchester City, home – should be the hardest team to play in the league. And yet. They look disjointed to me; they look like a very expensive collection of players who play very professionally together. Not a cohesive collective as we have recently. They can be got at especially away from home and some of their defenders can look creaky under pressure. They’ll score, we’ll score more. 3-2 to Liverpool.

Norwich, away. I suspect Suarez has had this one felt-tipped on the kitchen calendar since the fixtures were announced. They are a side that have no way of dealing with us, I cannot see any way that they get anything from the game. They also tend to capitulate if you get too far ahead too early. I expect us to batter them. 5-0 to us.

Chelsea, home. This is the one. This is the tricky bastard. Mourinho will come to contain, to frustrate and to walk away with a one-nil win. I’m not sure he realises quite yet how good we are. He is still stuck in a Machiavellian feedback loop; everything is conspiracy. His constant harping on about the fact we’re not in the Champions League as an advantage is starting to sound like he thinks we did it on purpose. I really want us to beat this lot. I would like to think that we could batter them. It would be right this season if we did. Head says 2-1 to Liverpool. Heart 6-0.

Crystal Palace, away. Hopefully by this stage Palace won’t need any more points to stay up and it can be a routine victory against a safe team. They pose similar problems to Allardyce but have even less footballing intelligence. We should be better than them. And I expect to pass round them and win well. 3-0 to Liverpool.

And so finally…

Newcastle, home. They’ll have nothing to play for, have sold their best players and never do well at Anfield. We will have the title in our sights and are considerably better than them any way so. 6-0 to Liverpool.

Which would leave us on 89 points. With a goal difference of +62 and goals scored of 110.

Daniel Rhodes: I’m unable to use the logical part of my brain anymore. It went after the Fulham match, seeing Gerrard’s face after he scored the penalty. Depending on when you ask, we might lose all six, draw all six, or, runaway with the title, managing a quite frankly ridiculous, record-breaking, masturbating, football-shaking, all-conquering 14 wins on the bounce.

To crank up the comparative achievement award, if Liverpool complete such a feat, win the lot, and win the league, it would be the single greatest human achievement in the history of humanity – just pipping Darwin, Newton, Einstein, Luis Suarez’s Mum, and the ancient Egyptians who built the Pyramids. Better than the four minute mile, the fastest sprint of all-time, the longest leap and the highest jump. Told you, no logic whatsoever.

The solution? Numbers. The stats. I’ve got a spreadsheet with all the figures, from all our games this season. Then split the league into four sections of five teams (apart from the top five, because we cannot play ourselves, so it is the top six), and taken all the results from each game, and come up with an average.

To get the number of goals for each match, the equation is quite simple (but it could take into account many more variables): total shots (13.6, West Ham) x chance conversion (0.132) = 1.79 (or two goals). As much as we’d enjoy beating Allardyce 2.81 – 1.79, it needs rounding up or down. (0.49 = no goals; 0.5-1.49 = one goal, and so on.)

Here’s the six games, predicted.

GAME #1 and #2

(Ignore the fact it says ‘all home games’ on the West Ham one, I just forget to change it, but I did use the figures from all the away games against teams of relative strength.) 

GAME #3 and #4

GAME #5 and #6

The stats suggest we will struggle more when we travel to the sides towards the bottom of the league. Different tactics, the need to be patient, break them down, rather than attacking on the counter, which is the reason for more goals/chances/points, when we face the better teams at Anfield. Look at the quality of chances (potentially) in the Norwich and Palace games, and difference in Clear Cut Chances.

The stats also suggest:

(WWWWWWWW) WWWWWW

Which requires very little interpretation, context or analysis.

It is official, Liverpool will be crowned champions. I need a lie down.

Shaul Mitelpunkt (Serpico): West Ham (A): Andy Carroll scores against us on the 5th minute with a bullet header. A Suarez free kick and a Sturridge break away make it 1-2 to Liverpool.

Man City (H): Yaya Toure hits the bar with a free kick, but seconds after that Zabaleta is sent off for tackling Sterling from behind while on a break. We score from a Henderson run on the 60th minute and win the game.

Norwich (A): Suarez shows up, the Norwich players refuse to play, technical win Liverpool.

Chelsea (H): Hazard and Oscar score one each even though Liverpool are the dominate side, and we go off 0-2 in the break. We smash through them in the second half to win it 3-2, with the winning goal being a Stevie bullet like the days of the old. Mourinho says Liverpool enjoyed unfair advantage due to not having as much money and hence not as much pressure, and Rodgers just stands there smiling at this comment.

Palace (A): Tackles are flying all over the place as Palace fight relegation. They are fighting for their lives and it seems we will not break them. Webb is supposed to give us three penalties and to send two Palace players off, but he just smirks there standing with his constable pose as we protest. Then in the 92th minute Skrtel scores from a tussle in the Palace 6-yard box after a corner. We win.

Newcastle (H): Newcastle are playing for nothing, we must win to claim title. The game goes on in frantic pace and it is 3-3 by the 70th minute due to a Remy hat-trick (Agger is having a ‘mare) and it is Sturridge who kept us in the game by winning us two penalties with smart movement. We are second best most of the game. Then in the 87th minute Suarez shimmies past four players, lobbing it over Krul. 4-3. Liverpool hang on with Lucas clearing from the line in the 91st minute. Final Whistle, Liverpool won the game and the title.

My that was fun!

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Comments (139)

  1. Author
    Chris Rowland 9 years ago

    Symposium’s back, and it’s a humdinger. We’re all a bit giddy just now aren’t we, like the proverbial pig that’s eaten too many apples and they’re starting to ferment. Happy daze!

  2. 1Hanmdd 9 years ago

    PLEASE JUST SAY WE ARE GOING TO WIN THE LEAGUE… PLEASE SAY WE ARE…?

    I watched the game at my mates on Sunday and we went for a run before hand and we agreed, we are going on a 3 day bender if we win it… anyone care to join us? You would all be most welcome!

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      Try stopping me! Ticket or no ticket, if we are still in with a shout against Newcastle I will be spending the weekend in Liverpool.

      • jimtheoracle 9 years ago

        And miss a party 24 years in the making? I’ll be there too. Already planning the time off. 

      • Jamie K 9 years ago

        Me too.

        And I will be coming from Texas via Florida.

        I live in Houston now, and my Dad (who is from Salford and a manc, we moved to Liverpool before I was born for his job) is flying over and we are going to Orlando for a weeks golf.

        He flies back on the 11th.

        I have already told him that if its possible that weekend that we can win it, I am flying to Liverpool on the 10th to arrive 11th AM. Regardless of cost and of where our tournament is at results wise! He is annoyed. He is pretty annoyed generally this season about their performance but for us to be challenging rubs it in greatly. 

        Looks like we’ll fall out about this but that’s life and part of being an adult I guess!

        I can’t imagine not being in Liverpool for this. Ticket or no ticket.

        Here’s a moral dilemma too:

        My mate has my season ticket, it was my granddad’s. I keep it and he gives me the money and goes*. 

        We had an agreement that if I was ever back I could use it. I’ve never excercised this right as I’ve always been able to get other tickets. I suspect Newcastle tickets will be rather hard to come by this time! 

        Its been 8 years of him paying.

        Do I excercise this agreement now and rob him of seeing it happen? Or do I rob myself by being a nice guy or by paying an online tout $$$$$ for it?

        What would TTT do?

         

         

        *I know I am playing the system here but I do plan to move back to Merseyside at some point and lets face it, would you give up a season ticket when there’s a 15 year wait list?

      • Cianos 9 years ago

        As a show of strength for your friendship being more important than football perhaps you should agree to both skip the match and watch it together on TV somewhere.

        Now if neither of you is using the ticket, and because it would be a shame to see it go to waste, I think I may have a solution 😉

    • simonsmith1981 9 years ago

      Deal. Somehow.

      • Melwood 9 years ago

        You have to let him go if its the title decider.

        He has been going every week in rain, hail or shine and if he had the chance to have a season ticket he would have got one.

        Its a shame for you, but honour is everything.

    • Jamie K 9 years ago

      @ Melwood, yeah that’s what I’m leaning towards. He actually comes from Dublin every other weekend too. He’s a Walton lad working out there and married, doesn’t earn a lot and spends it on that so it would be a bit of cunts trick.

      @Cianos – not a bad shout that! 

  3. MikeTaylor 9 years ago

    The superb Sports Club Stats page on Liverpool says that if we finish on 85 points, we have a 75.5% chance of winning the league, but if we get 86 points, a slightly lesser chance of winning — 74.8%. Can that possibly be true?

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      Come on Mike, it’s widely known that the more points you get the less chance you have of being top, don’t you know anything? 😉

    • Beez 9 years ago

      I think it’s because to get to 86 we have to lose a game (W5 D0 L1) whereas a run to 85 leaves us unbeaten (W4 D2 L0).

      As we’re most likely to lose to either City or Chelsea, I think that explains why we’d have less of a chance of winning the league than if we get at least a point against them both.

      • sk.chew 9 years ago

        Very logical and excellent reply Beez! You are the guru of gurus on stats! 

  4. MikeTaylor 9 years ago

    James Keen: Chelsea, home […] Head says 2-1 to Liverpool. Heart 6-0.

    LOL!

  5. skinster6 9 years ago

    My brain will only let me compute the next game at Upton Park. I’m going, I’m sitting with David Gold in the Directors box and I’m already shitting myself. I’m not at all superstitious but I’m getting superstitions…what is with that?

    We will win 0-2 on Sunday and I’ll be pleased that ‘I’ haven’t cost us 3 points by sitting with the opposition Director.

    I’ll then go back to my arm chair to watch the run in, apart from vs Newcastle when I’ll be in Liverpool.

    Win it or qualify for the Champions League, this has been a season to remember…thank you LFC.

    • 1Hanmdd 9 years ago

      Is it Gold who wears the awful coats…? Or is it the other one… ask him where he gets them from? And tell him they look awful!

      Good luck!

    • fourcandles 9 years ago

      Wow, how’d you swing that! How are you going to keep a straight face as we blast the goals in? I’m looking for us to thrash them like we do Norwich. Bloody hell!

      Edit: Could you wear a funny hat or a hold a TTT sign? I’ll be looking for you on the telly!

    • Timbo 9 years ago

      Is your username related to the skin mags that made Gold his money?

  6. MikeTaylor 9 years ago

    … but seconds after that Zabaleta is sent off for tackling Sterling from behind while on a break.

    I didn’t even know they were in a relationship. Rim-shot.

    Thank you, thank you, I’m here all week! Don’t forget to tip your waitresses!

     

  7. berre 9 years ago

    I’ll be in Liverpool with two mates (and unless we’ve been scammed actually at the game) and I’m bricking it in a massive way. Can’t get any work done, just constantly searching the interwebs for confirmation that we can actually do this – that it isn’t just another pipe dream. I don’t know if my heart can take the excitement! It really is the hope that kills you – a hope regained for the first time in donkey’s years. I’d forgotten how this feels like…

    Rodgers said that we should hopefully be in the conversation – well, tell you what: We’re not only in it, we’re setting the bloody agenda. And the agenda is bringing the thropy back to Anfield where it belongs. For good.

  8. NickM 9 years ago

    I have said for a while that West Ham and Palace both make me very nervous.

    Carroll will be wanting to score and we are not great on crosses. I thought both of these teams caused us problems at Anfield but at the same time we are better now than we were back then. The crucial thing against West Ham will be to score first I think so they will have to come out and be a bit more open. 

    Palace were excellent the other day against Chelsea and should have won by at least 3. This being the second last fixture may mean Palace are safe which may hopefully lead them to being more relaxed and hopefully not quite as defensively minded with 2 lines of 4 but being a Pulis team they will no doubt be very organised. 

    The fact we should beat both of these teams also puts more pressure on us but I am actually glad these are away from home to an extent because these are the type of games where the Anfield crowd would get nervous the longer the games go on without us winning. Against City and Chelsea I think the crowd will be really up for those games and they will be fantastic atmospheres where it maybe worth a goal head start. 

  9. troym63 9 years ago

      The SAS will knock up at least another 7 or 8 goals over the 6 games, Coutinho will bang in a couple more now he’s got his eye in, Sterling will bob up for one or two tap-ins, Hendo will miss 4 sitters but still get the winner against Chelsea, Stevie will put away another penalty this weekend, Joe Allen will join in the fun with a goal on the last day and we’ll keep at least 3 of the opposing teams to nil. I reckon that ought to do it.  18 points in the bag.  

  10. tattva 9 years ago

    I thought I was being positve!

    Maybe we do have a real chance.

  11. philipstratford 9 years ago

    Time off work booked for Monday 12th May.  And I seem to have somehow committed to jumping in the Albert Dock, along with a mate, if we win it.  At the time I made the promise it seemed like a ridiculous notion that we might go all the way.  Now I’m getting very nervous!

    • Melwood 9 years ago

      Did you know when they drained it as part of the renovations they found 30 cars dumped in there….Watch you dont land on the one they missed!

  12. Cianos 9 years ago

    This ties in what I posted on the quality media thread earlier.

    If I was a betting man I would be putting my money on a sequence of WWWWDW

    I’m not a betting man simply because I have attempted it so often with consistently bad results. Therefore I think our results will look nothing like this.

    Maybe draw with Man City, lose to Norwich, destroy Chelsea and somehow scrape the league on goal difference from Chelsea on the last day after shock City defeats to Sunderland and Everton.

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      I can’t escape the thought that Everton may help us land no 19 by drawing with or beating City on the penultimate weekend. Hoepfully they’ll still have a shout for top 4 themselves by then, to keep them keen.

      • Cianos 9 years ago

        Keep this to yourself now ok but City have a terrible record at Goodison. They have lost 5 of the last 6 league games there including the last 4 in a row.

        As you say it would be kind of funny if they won that game to sneak into 4th place only to hand us the initiative to win the title. 😉 

        I imagine it would be like selling an antique watch for a grand then finding out the guy you sold it to was able to flog it for 10 grand…

  13. stuart2caven 9 years ago

    To win the league with 14 straight wins, beating the previous record of 13 by the AFC invincibles of 01/02, would have us all in raptures. Not to mention Slur Alex, Maureen and the sand snakes searching for the nearest gantries to hang their nooses off.

    To paraphrase Churchill “Never in the field of football conflict has so much been owed by so many to so few”  

     

  14. Neu 9 years ago

    A couple of weeks before I rejoined the TTT fold, I did a little research on leagues past and how they looked with roughly 10 matches to go and how they panned out for those in the top 4 places. I relayed my conclusions on TAW (albeit without getting into too much detail suffice to say that Liverpool had a chance of finishing in the top 2).

    Last night I looked at how the tables looked with 6 matches to go.

    Of the 21 seasons if the PL, 6 have won when not in 1st place. Indeed only Arsenal, in 2002, who were 3rd when Liverpool were top with 6 matches to play, leapfrogged into top spot. There’s a warning for you, we have actually been in a similar position before. Interestingly that season ended strongly for Arsenal with 87 points but at that stage, Liverpool were top with 65, which is actually quite low for that time of the season, at least in recent years (this is of course pre-Abramovitch).

    Post-Abramovitch, things go up a notch, here are what the top side had after 32 matches from 2004:

    2004: 78

    2005: 81

    2006: 79

    2007: 78

    2008: 76

    2009: 71 (United after 31 matches and the rest 32. At 32 they had 74)

    2010: 72

    2011: 69 (interesting how it’s started to go down post-05)

    2012: 79

    2013: 80 (then BANG! Up again)

    So, 71 points after 32 games (for Liverpool, as possible 73 from Man City) is at he lower/middle end of the scale.

    Man United tend to either slip up or go on and win. In 21 seasons, they led with 6 matches to play on 14 occasions. 3 times they let it slip (1998, 2010, 2012) and twice they come from behind (1993 and 2003).

    2002 is the tricky one, if you equalise Arsenal’s match catch-up with the rest (as they didn’t at the time), then they would theoretically be first, as is Man City…

    But in the main, the top 2 with 6 to play are the top 2 at the end (though not necessarily in the exact positions), which suggest very highly that the lowest position Liverpool will finish is runner’s up. Although Arsenal slumped from 2nd to 4th in 2011, but they were in a tailspin and we are assuredly not!

    I reckon 85 could well be enough if we avoid defeat to Chelsea and beat Man City.

    A win over Chelsea means they could only get 84 points at the best, a draw, 85 and we have better goal difference. I’m confident we can finish above them. City are the trickier proposition. If they beat us at Anfield then you’d have to say it’s theirs to lose. But if we win, then we could be 7 points clear. They play Sunderland and then we play Norwich first, a chance to extend the lead back again leaving City with no more margin for error…

    If it’s a draw (assuming our match with West Ham is a win) then it could get complicated. The most we could get is 87 (if we beat Chelsea), the most they could get is 89. Another 2 points dropped (against Palace or Everton) and then it could go down to goal difference again…

     

  15. collo 9 years ago

    I can’t wait to see Brendan’s reaction if we do it.

    Expect his cool facade to melt and his customary post-win little fist pump to escalate big time – perhaps into running around the pitch, his top off and swinging it about his head, take a bite out of Suarez and possibly sing a song over the mic. I’d expect I’ll be a little delerious too.

     

  16. oliver cruise 9 years ago

    Just a small note, if Chelsea drop further points between now and our encounter at Anfield, they will be all but of the race. This match is wedged in between the champions league semi final two legs, Joes just might field a weakened team if he has nothing to play for as he will have a champions league final in his sight. 

    Unfortunately that means we are supporting Chelsea this evening. 

    • davidjb 9 years ago

      I think you’re right. Maureen is prioritising the Champions League so he can win it three times and claim he’s the greatest manager ever.  He also wants to enhance his job prospects with a genuinely big club for when Abramovitch tires of his arse and kicks him out. He’s already getting in his excuses about why Chelsea can’t win the league. 

      It’s between us and ManCity. 

      • Chardo34 9 years ago

        This is exactly why Rafa suddenly spoke up and branded Maureen a specialist in European failure. To goad him into retorting by prioritising the CL over the EPL.

        As he said, he still has a lot of friends in Liverpool.

  17. Simply Red 9 years ago

    I think the City-Southampton game is the crucial one.  If City wins, they win the league but if it is a draw then it will come down to goal difference.  This is based on the following: (a) Us: 4 wins & draw vs City & Chelsea; (b) City 5 wins, draw vs Everton & us plus Southampton result; (c) Chelsea: draw vs us and win the rest.  If City-Southampton ends in a draw then all 3 teams have 85 points.  Chelsea will be 3rd with the lowest goal difference.

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      If City wins, they win the league but if it is a draw then it will come down to goal difference.

      That’s way too assumptive Simply, I think. It’s a game they’re expected to win. There are other games that top teams are expected to win but may not – Chelsea at Villa and Palace, us at Hull, City at Villa and Cardiff. There will almost certainly be more. The key is the others having as many or more than we do. Plus those 2 key home games, of course.

      I have always felt Mourinho’s record of never having lost a home league match at Chelsea will fall to someone silly rather than a top tabler. Someone silly like Stoke perhaps, or Sunderland, or Norwich? They’ve all yet to go to Stamford Bridge. Can one of them do it – maybe Norwich last game, to stay up?

      For me it’s City who are the real danger – if we don’t beat them at Anfield I fear it’s going be uphill to finish top. Our hopes may lie across the park at Goodison when City visit. Hopefully Everton will still be interested in top 4 by then.

      This predicting’s a mug’s game really isn’t it? 😉

      • Simply Red 9 years ago

        Agree that I have too many assumptions :).  However, I think Southampton could well be the team that takes points away from City.  They seem to play well against the top sides, and have, in fact, taken points from 3 of the top 4 this season so far.  City at home will be a different proposition, I know, but I am way too excitedly exhausted being so overjoyed at how we are performing and following the many wonderful threads here that I just hope that my semi-rational or logic-free hopes can be fulfilled :P.

        Think lots of us are running the full gamut of emotions now, but this time there is genuine hope.  This represents our best shot so far, and may even be for a few more years to come depending on what sort of obsence sums City & Chelsea are going to spend in the summer.  A bit more comforted now that Man U drew last night, it means Moyes can stay there longer.  I am digressing.  Should stick to my one-game-at-a-time approach.  Looking this far ahead is doing weird things to my mental state…..

  18. El Indio 9 years ago

     – just pipping Darwin, Newton, Einstein, Luis Suarez’s Mum, and the ancient Egyptians who built the Pyramids.

     

    You forgot his Dad, Daniel 😉 

    Equal contribution 😛 

    • That’s very true, terrible sexism on my part! I blame the recent Mother’s Day for my bigotry 😉 

      So, huge thanks also to Rodolfo Suarez: http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/luis-suarez-story—how-3010139

    • Although maybe not as much credit as his mum, grandmother and future-wife!

      It was far from plain sailing. Suarez, never the most attentive of students, was jolted by his father abandoning the family home when he was 12. His mother and grandmother would strive to keep the family together, but by 14, distracted and disenchanted, he was fighting for his career at Nacional.

      Fortunately for Suarez, there was a good influence waiting around the corner. He was 15 when he met Sofia Balbi, but was instantly smitten.

      “She gave me a lot of confidence and helped me believe in myself,” he says.

      Pirez recalls Suarez picking up coins from the street in order to treat Sofia, who is now his wife.

      “He was infatuated,” he says. In the meantime, he was busy convincing Nacional’s sceptical coaches to keep faith with their young maverick.

      Thankfully for Suarez, and for football, they did. It proved to be one of their smarter moves.

      • El Indio 9 years ago

        Behind every erratic genius, there are a bunch of women. 

        😉 

  19. Abe 9 years ago

    Serpico made an error in his post, he incorrectly described the last goal against Newcastle as it should be more like this: Sturridge… Sterling… Sturridge… Sterling …Still Sterling … SUAREZ CLOSING IN!

  20. Chardo34 9 years ago

    We’ll go into the final day on same points and GD as City and it will all come down to who scores most.

    Unlucky City.

    PS Maureen will sacrifice a player with ten mins to go at Anfield by instructing him to break Luis’s leg. The red will be shown but Luis will just run it off and score again.

  21. Jeff 9 years ago

    To me it is fun to speculate on what will or will not happen in the last six games. This being said, the reality is that with six games to go we are in with a REAL shot at actually winning the Premire League and for all practical purposes we will get a top four finish in the Premier Leauge – okay we are almost certain of getting a top three spot. This means to me what I said before the last match and the match before that our games have become must watch TV and come before seeming important things such as having a scheduled MRI or CAT scan – I tend not to pay attention to which machine I am scheduled to visit.

  22. skinster6 9 years ago

    Oh come on Jeff. Your health is not more important than the Liverpool winning the Premier League 😉

    • Jeff 9 years ago

      My health is more important but to me there is not a whole lot of difference between going on a weekday in the middle of the afternoon and missing a match and getting up at 5 the next morning and getting the test. What I got out of waiting roughly 14 hours to get a test was the joy of watching Liverpool win a match which to me was a good trade off. I 

      • Simply Red 9 years ago

        A brain wave scanner is a decent compromise.  You can watch the match and have yourself scanned at the same time.  Just don’t look at the results afterwards 🙂

  23. skinster6 9 years ago

    That sounds like a great trade off to me. It could’ve been a 14 week wait if you were relying on the NHS.

    I hope the results are favourable in good health.

    • neilcaff 9 years ago

      It could’ve been a 14 week wait if you were relying on the NHS.

      Or it could have been a wait until you’re dead if you didn’t have the right health insurance. Take it from someone who used to live in a country without a socialized health care system, don’t be so quick to knock the NHS. 

  24. harvo 9 years ago

    ” and avoid Howard Webb” love it Russ

  25. Suffolkscouser 9 years ago

    Is West Ham the match to put Sakho back in the back 4 to cover Carroll? Both Agger and Skittles seem to be pretty easy to knock about by the bigger forwards. Sakho is a bit of a man mountain and probably more able to deal with AC!

    Or does that mess with the settled team that we’ve had playing for the past few matches? Give a bit of uncertainty to the back 4 and mean that its actually easier for West Ham?

    Glad I’m not BR!! (although it would be fun for a bit!)

    • Monkeynuts 9 years ago

      I would say not. Sakho hasn’t played a competitive game in months and never against Carroll. Skrtel and Agger played against Carroll day in, day out on the training pitch and they’re in good form. But regardless of that, stop the crosses and who cares? The ball will be up the other end of the pitch, anyway.

  26. maradoo 9 years ago

    Sorry I missed this Symposium…

    Was too busy organising my tickets for the West Ham game on Sunday!!!!!

    Am coming from South Africa purely for the match, with my TTT mate Daniress, so this ought to be a bit of fun…

    So if any other match-faring Reds wish to get together before match for a pint on Sunday, do let me know lads!

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      And there was me whingeing about how far it is to get from the north to Norwich for a midday kick off! 

      Have a great time Mark, just keep your wits about you, one or two of those East Enders can get a bit moody.

    • marksmy 9 years ago

      Extreme winds forecast for Sunday lol 🙂

    • Beez 9 years ago

      It’s a real shame I’m busy on Sunday, maradoo, else I’d have come and met you for a pint.

      As someone who lives in east London, I can vouch for what Chris says – watch your back!

    • maradoo 9 years ago

      That is a great pity Beez, but I shall cheer for you in spirit! Thanks for the words of caution Chris, I shall be sure to be quiet until well into the ground…

  27. maradoo 9 years ago

    It seems most have us getting inbetween 14 and 18 points.

    I, like Beez, am a firm believer in stats as a means of guesstimating, and what we know is that, as the season wears on, we are getting stronger and stronger whilst the other are statistically falling away.

    Consider that our 8 game running average goal difference has gone from 0.75 (game 8) to 0.95 (game 16) to 1.67 (game 24) and now 1.91 (game 32). We are improving massively as the season nears its climax.

    If you contrast this with City – 1.38 to 1.75 to 1.91 and now down to 1.63 over roughly the same period, you will see that as the season winds down they are actually regressing, meaning that are outscoring their opponents by less goals as time goes on whereas we are outscoring ours by more.

    This may prove fatal to our opponents. Most Reds couldn’t in their wildest dreams see a title win, but now I would suggest the unthinkable – we will win the title with a game to spare.

    Chelsea seem to have found their achilles heel – tight games where their strikers revert to their statistical mean of battling to score. This has left them facing a few too many draws (or tight losses) like Rafa’s 08-09 vintage.

    City have to come to Anfield, and as Mourinho can attest from his humbling experience in 05, you don’t want to arrive at Anfield needing even a point when the home side can sense its place in history. City will struggle at ours, I have no doubt about it.

    A victory against City will put us well clear of them, with them and Chelsea knowing that it is now well out of their own hands, and I fully expect more points to be dropped by our opponents than us simply because they will sense they are beaten.

    Indeed, a good Chelsea win tonight against PSG and progress into the semi-finals of the CL, will probably leave Mourinho ‘ceding’ us the title as he has ‘bigger fish to fry’ in the CL. I don’t see them taking us to the wire.

    I sense this weekend will be pivotal. Southampton are not a team that fear City, and they will play to score. An open game could result in a shock result and I also expect Stoke, who are on good form, to give Chelsea problems at the Bridge.

    Exciting times.

  28. Dex 9 years ago

    For me, a dream scenario would be for Chelsea to win their quarter final and get Real Madrid in the Semi Final.

    Tue/ Wed 22-23/4/14 Champions League Semi Final 1st Leg

    Sunday  27/4/14 Liverpool V Chelsea

    Tue/ Wed 29-30/4/14 Champions League Semi Final 2nd Leg

    Mourinho would hoepfully concentrate on the C:

    He’d hope equal Bobs record of 3 wins.
    Only manager to win with 3 different clubs.
    If he wins it would be with his “beloved” Chelsea
    He’s already won the Premier a few times, CL more important for his ego..
    and he’d like to piss off Real Madrid.

    He can then get battered in the second leg.

  29. Author
    Chris Rowland 9 years ago

    I suspect this team has learnt to trust in what is drilled into it at Melwood. Most of all, they have learnt to trust in each other. If we do what we know, and back each other, then the outcome takes care of itself. Throw in the growing sense of destiny amongst our support, which has just been plugged into a a wall of Marshall stacks after being semi-acoustic for most of a generation, and the runes read most tunefully. 

    • Chris Simpson 9 years ago

      “Throw in the growing sense of destiny amongst our support, which has just been plugged into  a wall of Marshall stacks after being semi-acoustic for most of a generation, and the runes read most tunefully.”

      Ace sentence Chris – simultaneously combining Sunday`s atmosphere with Led Zep 3 and Led Zep 4….The PA should play “When the Levee Breaks” before each of the three remaining home games….We can Plant City and Chelsea and write a new Page in our history….

       

  30. nobbyjbc 9 years ago

    Lots of talk of pressure. Little of pressure on the others.

    I don’t see a scenario where City win all remaining games (excluding Anfield). I tihnk they’ll lose at least 1 more. (Everton perhaps)

    I don’t see Chelsea scoring in every remaining game.

    What does that mean? I think we need 13 pts to win league. 4 wins, 1 draw.

    Our lose could be West Ham or Palace. Our draw could be City.

    Overall – we get the pts required and we win the league.

  31. Beez 9 years ago

    I looked up the stats below for someone at lunchtime, but something has just occurred to me.

    Remember last season how Sturridge played like a man possessed against City and Chelsea? The assumption was he had a point to prove to teams that had let him go.

    Imagine how much he’ll want to say “you could’ve won the league if you’d kept me. Well I’m going to win it for a team that believes in me”. I’m convinced we’ll beat both of them now 😉

    Anyway, here are Suarez and Sturridge’s stats for Liverpool against our remaining opponents.  

    <td<

      Suarez Sturridge
      Apps Goals Apps Goals
    West Ham 3 2 1 0
    Man City 5 1 1 1
    Norwich 5 11 1 1
    Chelsea 6 2 1 1
    Palace 1 1 1 1
    Newcastle 4 2 2 3
    Total 24 19 7 7

    GOALS GOALS GOALS!

    • Dex 9 years ago

      I like your thinking. Especially as he had a quiet game against Spurs.

      It’s amazing how many times players raise their game against old clubs. Look at Johnson, he’s scored 8 goals for us in his career. 3 against West Ham..

      But they’ll have Carroll, Downing and Cole. The only one I have real concerns about is Carroll. We have to stop the delivery into the box and no silly fouls in the last third (they will be playing for them).

      • Author
        Chris Rowland 9 years ago

        Ah stop worrying, we’ll batter them! 🙂

      • Dex 9 years ago

        It’s just a typo Chris. It should have come out like this:

        I like your thinking. Especially as they have Allardyce.

        It’s amazing how many times players raise their game against old clubs. Look at Johnson, he’s scored 8 goals for us in his career. 3 against West Ham..

        They have Carroll, Downing and Cole. Amd I have no concerns about any of them. We have to not care, and get into their box as often as possible. No silly fouls in the last third West Ham, or we’ll punish you.

         

      • Author
        Chris Rowland 9 years ago

        Nice one Dex! 😉

    • Beez…

      GOALS GOALS GOALS!

      Is that the new Right Said Fred single?

  32. West Ham winning at Sunderland the other night was massive. Fat Sam knows he’s virtually safe now, so I don’t expect them to be too much of a problem. Sakho must play, though, because otherwise Carroll will dominate our CBs.

    I expect to beat City and Norwich, then draw with Chelsea. If Palace are safe when we go there, I reckon we’ll win easily; if not, I can see more points dropped there (purely based on my irrational hatred of Palace). Newcastle will be rolled over comfortably.

  33. Mountainsti posted this way back in Feb 2nd

    For a bit of considered perspective I had a look at the comments on the official website. Following BR’s interview after deadline day there are 850+ comments.  I got through about 100 and picked out a few of the most ‘insightful’ to share….

     

    Send Ayre back to commercial dept. Only deals he can seal are commercial where money comes in but when it needs to go out, he’s clueless. This has been going on for 2 many windows and cannot be just coincidence. Not when you get your arss whip every time. Meanwhile Chelski completed 4 deals quietly. Change is needed. Bring back Comolli. And you can forget the Ukrainian in summer. F&&%%$D#!!!”

     

    “this is bull,goodbye Louis and 4th spot we are the laughing posts of the premiership cant finalise a deal ,its screaming the problem is LFC because it cant be every players fault how many deals up now? We are injury prone so what happens next he brings more youth through it wont get us champ league….harry got 5 in what a master, maybe could do a training session at SNR MGT LFC ”

     

    “Just forget about champions league”

     

    “we are just having a run of good form thats all its not going to happen for ever when theres no good quality signings coming on to strengthen a already out of depth squad and overrated players we have already id say 6th to 9th for us this season ”

     

    This is turning beyond a joke. The club’s incompetence regarding transfers is embarrassing. Have to feel for Rodgers here. Get’s a tiny squad to fourth and everybody at the club lets him down, window after window. Can’t wait for this year’s apology letter from JWH.”

     

    “Not good enough FSG. Don’t want some pathetic excuse / open letter, or a feasible stadium update / PR stunt This whole transfer approach is flawed. 6 months of preparation for what exactly? Even rubbish organizations are not that incompetent. It’s all a charade to avoid spending money. No trust in FSG anymore. Just sell up and leave.

     

    “Frustrating that when it came to it we went after a player that wasn’t for sale to begin with. Transfer policies short sighted. Spend now and earn more when we secure champions league..joke Lfc and now laughing stock of the league. We have become a cash cow for a baseball team fsg spend big there, shame they’re full of empty promises for us!!!”

     

    Broken promises: 1) No stadium; 2) Mickey Mouse transfer budget; 3) Suarez will leave or be sold this summer; 4) Owners will use 10% of that to buy 10 players at 400K each! FSG, Henry, Werner and Ayre are a big disappointment and can’t wait to see them all leave.”

     

    Looks like BR had been prepped for this kind of talk cos u can’t say u working hard on a major signing and later on say u were unable to conclude a deal. Can u pls bring back Daniel Comolli cos he get deals done on time as soon as target are identified. If nothing he GET deals done and Mr ian Ayre needs to learn how to close deals fast and not lose out… LFC is not a second-tier team.”

     

    FSG = Penny Pinchers Ayre = Clueless incompetent liar Put them together what do you get, no quality transfers, Suarez off in summer,zero ambition LFC will NEVER win PL or CL with FSG”

     

    That last one was by someone who calls himself Jollymickeymousers. Glad we caught him on a good day….

    Compare that to the comments we have in the last few days.

  34. dulcet 9 years ago

    Chris has got it bang on for me.

    West Ham (A) – draw. City (H) -win. Norwich (A) – win. Chelsea (H) – draw. Palace (A) – win. Newcastle (H) – win.

    Andy Carrol might awake from his slumbers one more time to make a point (literally). Come away from Upton Park with 3 points and the title is ours! (Probably)

  35. Chardo34 9 years ago

    Just about to watch an old MOTD I didn’t know was still on SKY+.

    leaders Arsenal have arrived at Anfield unbeaten in their last 10.

    Szczesny has the most clean sheets in the Premiership.

    Apart from Walcott out, Arsenal look at full strength, with Cazorla, Giroud and the Ox ahead of Ozil, Wilshere and Arteta. Back four of Monreal, Koscielny, Mertesacker and Sagna.

    But 4th placed Liverpool are seven games unbeaten, so what gives, asks the commentator?

    Looking forward to finding out! 🙂

     

    • Chardo34 9 years ago

      Best three parts of the game?

      Suarez volley onto the post.

      Suarez 30yd free kick saved in the top corner.

      Coutinho dribble through three gooners then slide rule pass to Hendo who chips just wide.

      • SuperTiger 9 years ago

        I’d gladly swop 10 of our goals for THAT volley to have gone in. Okay, maybe 5.

    • Denis 9 years ago

      Oooh, what a pleasure awaits!  By this time, LFC should be … 3-0 up?  Better hurry the typing or it’ll be 4 by the time I post!

  36. matthewyoung 9 years ago

    Arse, bollocks, shite.

    Meant to contribute to this, but my head is such a whirl of work, kids, grab 20 minutes free time at the moment that I completely forgot.

    FWIW, I think Andy Carroll is destined to score against us on Sunday (despite the fact that I don’t believe in that shit). But I think we’ll win. Just. Maybe 2-1.

    City at home will be a shoot-out. Attack vs attack. I’m going for 4-3 us, partly because no Aguero for them.

    Norwich away – you know what, Luis is going to do it again. Yet another hat-trick against the Canaries. 1-5 (again).

    Chelsea – this is the one we’ll slip up in. Mourinho’s record in games against fellow contenders is extraordinary. I think this will be the game we lose. 1-2.

    Palace will be safe by the time we play them. 0-3.

    Newcastle are a shambles. 4-0 at least.

    So, I’m going for 15 points from the last 18. That’ll get us to 86. Will it be enough? No idea. But we couldn’t really ask for anything more from this season. 

    All we can do is maximise our points return. We can’t control that of others.

    • Chardo34 9 years ago

      Meant to contribute to this, but my head is such a whirl of….. 

      Tweet my friend, I said you’d call Doctor Roberts
      Day or night I’ll be here any time at all, Doctor Roberts
      Doctor Robert, I’m a new and better man,
      She helps me to understand
      She does everything she can, Doctor Roberts

      If you’re down she’ll pick you up, Doctor Roberts
      Take a drink from her special cup, Doctor Roberts
      Doctor Robert, she’s a woman you must believe,
      Helping everyone in need
      No one can succeed like Doctor Roberts

      Well, well, well, you’re looking fine
      Well, well, well, she’ll shake you … Doctor Roberts

      My friend works for the BBC, Doctor Roberts
      Don’t pay SKY just to see old rocks with Doctor Roberts
      Doctor Roberts, you’re a fit and clever woman,
      She helps you to understand
      She just says oyt rather than out, Doctor Roberts

      Well, well, well, you’re looking fine
      Well, well, well, she’ll make you … Doctor Roberts

      Tweet my friend, I said you call Doctor Roberts
      Tweet my friend, I said you call Doctor Roberts
      Doctor Roberts

       

    • matthewyoung 9 years ago

      Are you ok, Chardo?!

      I mean, I know what you’ve done….but I don’t know what you mean!

      • Chardo34 9 years ago

        Not working today, recovering from physio on the sofa with too much time on my hands, obviously.

      • matthewyoung 9 years ago

        Ice dancing injury?

      • Chardo34 9 years ago

        Knitter’s elbow

  37. matthewyoung 9 years ago

    Incidentally, has anyone seen Dirk recently?

    He suggested I may be mentally unstable for predicting we’d get 80 points just after New Year. I’d just like to thumb my nose at him!

    EDIT – just seen him over in off-pitch. Good grief, Penfold.

  38. El Indio 9 years ago

    The Us vs. City vs. Chelsea reminds me of the classic Western showdown.

    I was (still am) a big fan of Louis L’Amour, having read all his works by the age of 16 (including the Sackett series). And then I was introduced to Sergio Leone’s fabled stories of the West.

    They all had similar themes. It wasn’t about how much armoury you had in store, or the swagger/pomp of walking the talk and killing at will. It was always about being really calm and making your chances count.

    I was so fascinated by the showdowns (and unsuccessfully tried explaining people ) because it was always about maintaining your cool despite the odds stacked against you.

    (The moment when the camera pans across the sweaty hands, the different shades of eyes encompassing horror/calm/absolute madness)

    Too excited, you might draw fast and miss your marker all together.

    Too much driven by fear of death, and you might draw a moment later (with the searing warmth of blood oozing out of your torso engulfing you into pure horror of inevitable death).

    I’m not suggesting that a three way duel is similar to football because a duel, during those Western days, was a matter of life and death.

    But the underlying sentiment of coming out of top remains the same. 

    Core to human needs and the behavioural pattern, the winner of this season’s title would be someone (or some team) that wants it badly but also plays smartly. 

    Calm, cold and ruthless. 

    The way we have played this season, hints towards it. Shootouts in one off duels, which has been the football equivalent of scoring goals with sniper-ish accuracy.

    There are other sides invovled who might want to gate crash the party, but I’m enjoying this three way shootout.

  39. brian 9 years ago

    My heart is pounding evern when I am reading this topic…

    17 more games that involved the top 3 sides. Win against lower team are all expected. The less banana skin we/they step on, the higher chance of winning the Big Thing.

    my prediction is LVP – 87, MC-87, CH-84. We draw the MC and beat Chelsea at Anfield.

    So only down to goal difference, God knows who really goes top.

    but when looking at MC schedule, 3 games in the last 9 days:
    May 3: away to Everton [they fight for top 4 so I predict a draw]

    May 7: home for Villa [they sometime surprise the big team]

    May 11: home for Westham. [always physical with some good run of wins this year]

    Not sure if MC can really win ALL?

  40. marksmy 9 years ago

    Most Reds couldn’t in their wildest dreams see a title win, but now I would suggest the unthinkable – we will win the title with a game to spare.

    I have had this same strong feeling for the last few days.

  41. SuperTiger 9 years ago

    In order to gauge the threat of our opponents in each remaining fixture, we should look to see what their season will look like at the time of playing them.

    Firstly, I’d start Lucas for Coutinho at the Hammers to mop up the knock-downs by Carroll as it’s essential for Stevie not to get a yellow as we need his long balls to turn defence into attack quickly against City. An early tackle on Downing by Flanno and the crossing threat will be nullified. The home crowd will soon be on their backs as we treat them to what they crave the most, quality attacking football on the deck. All the advice from his pal Mr Fergie won’t help Fat Sam. Solid win.

    Fixtures this weekend will be telling for both ends of the table. I expect City will win eventually against the Saints but we know how well the Saints press so a scare for the home team may happen.

    Pellegrini has bottled it for the big games this season against Chel$ki and Bayern and I’d expect them to try to nullify our attack and try hit us on the counter. This plays into our hands as it weakens their threat. I expect 2 early goals and heroic defending with the counter attack being our main focus in the 2nd half. We need to stop Silva weaving his magic.

    Relegation candidates are likely to be Fulham and 2 others. This weekend sees the Canaries v WAB (The following weekend they (Canaries) go to Fulham then it’s 4 straight defeats for them – us; Mancs (A); Chel$ki (A); Gunners (H)) Thus these next 2 games are extremely critical for them. When we pitch up it should be damage limitation for them as they try to get into ‘can we hold them out mode’ for their last 4 games.

    Next it’s the Special Mouth. I’m really looking forward to seeing how Rodgers handles the attempt at mind games. This will be a theme for next season and I’d like him to continue to use the charm offensive as he dismisses it whilst also highlighting just how ridiculous the tired claims are for a team that loans out almost an entire extra squad of players. More early tackles as the referees sometimes officiate context rather than actual incidents is something I’d like mentioned too. I expect a loud, crowd-enduced draw after they take the lead from a counter attack.

    Then it’s Tony Pulis’ men. A previous weekend mauling by City could be helpful in lowering their morale or a well earned draw could boost it. Either way, it’s good for us. Their survival looks unlikely though as away from home they’ve managed just 6 goals so it could be over for them by the penultimate game with trips to Cardiff; the Toffees and Hammers with just the one home game against Villa before the aforementioned City game.

    The Magpies will be on holiday mentally after a last battling home game against Cardiff. Comfortable win.

    What we really need is the Saints and Toffees to draw with City. 

    What a ride though. What a ride.

  42. garythespud 9 years ago

    There’s certainly an air of optimism around today!

    There’s a fascinating round of fixtures this weekend:

    Chelsea v Stoke. Stoke have won three and drawn one of last four which tells me they could well expecting plotting a hard fought win. 

    Arsenal v Everton. A draw puts them both well out of the top 3. I envisage Everton shading it, though, as they’re getting the luck at the moment. That’ll be at least third sewn up for us.

    Man City v Southampton. Having only lost one and won three of last four they could be obdurate enough to halt City. Or they could concede aplenty. I have no idea on this one.

    Potentially, if results go our way, we could be sitting clear come Sunday evening. We don’t have to win them all, we just have to hope the rest of the league can pull some results out of the bag. Oh, and it’d be good if we hammer the Hammers! I expect Carroll to be shocking on Sunday and there’s not a lot to fear from anyone else.

     

  43. garythespud 9 years ago

    Ps. Happy 40th birthday to Alex (Tattva)! Being a (young!) 42 year-old myself I have to say life begins at 40! 

  44. Taşkın (Tash) 9 years ago

    We’re top of the league with 6 games to go and its entirely in our hands. 

    We’re as close as we’ve been for years and yet we have a mountain to climb. 

    But then we’ve been scaling mountains all season.  All different shapes and sizes.  Skipping over them at times.  Taking selfies of ourselves pulling moonies at the top.

    Thinking we’ll win it feels like I am tempting fate to crush me so I dare not look. 

    Thinking we might not win it feels like pessimism that will tempt fate to slap me down for being a coward.

    My prediction is simple. 

    For me it will most definitely end in tears. 

    I just dont know exactly when or whether they will be tears of heart-shattering disappointment mixed with immense pride or the most overwhelming feeling of utter joy and ecstacy that is to such a degree that it amost hurts to even try to imagine it.

    Oh please let it happen. Is there a Dr in the house?

  45. simonsmith1981 9 years ago

    The symposium is pretty mixed huh.

    I flippantly told a guy at work that I don’t care if we win the league or not, I’m having too much fun. There may have been a grain of truth in there. I sure as hell won’t be disappointed. A few months ago I wrote that I would only consider this season a failure if there was no fight in the team. With six games to go I’m ready to call this season a resounding success, watching teams walk out to face Liverpool and give up in their heads before a ball is kicked.
    There’s not a single game that I am worried about losing and I remain unconvinced that City and Chelsea will win all their remaining games. I feel confident that as long as there is a next match to play that any slip ups could be nullified. And of course, City have to win two more games than us.

    There is something special about what’s happening up at Anfield. I am sure it will bear fruit at the end of many seasons to come.

  46. JoeP 9 years ago

    I forumated an algorithm that used as input data the season’s results so far along with performances and contributions of each player. This is what the algorithm has extrapolated based on how the season has panned out up until now.

    West Ham

    2-2 Draw. Brendan brings in Sakho and Toure to counter the Carroll Nolan threat (Not Carrol Nolan, the lesser known Nolan sister, I mean Andy Carroll and Kevin Nolan). All starts well, with Sturridge opening the scoring and Gerrard making it 2 just before half time. Disaster strikes however when Kolo Toure picks up the ball on the edge of the area in the 92nd minute and rifles a clearance straight into Carroll’s arse. the ball rebounds and loops over Mignolet into the net. Things go from bad to worse in the 93rd minute when straight from the restart the ball is played back to Kolo who then accidentally rifles it into the top corner of Mignolet’s net,  completing the comeback.

    City

    2-1 Win

    City take the lead in the 27th minute after Skrtel panics and hauls down the ref in the box. After protests that you can’t foul the ref, the penalty is awarded anyway and Yaya Toure slots home. City look to be heading for a decisive win until the 71st minute when Jon Flanagan picks the ball up inside the City box and attempts a Cruyff turn. He over drags the ball with instep mid turn and inadvertently sends it flying past Hart into the net. Cafu changes his name by deedpoll to Flaffu, and is rewarded in injury time when Flanno, overcome by excitement from his equalizer, rebounds the ball in off a lob on, after a goalmouth scramble.

     

    Norwich

    Win 6-0

    Suarez scores all 6. The first is direct from a corner. The second is direct from a goal kick. The third he sends the ball under the ground, burrowing beneath Carrow Road until it reappears in the goal. The fourth he overhead bycicle kicks it off his own crossbar using teh richochet to send it down to the other end and in past Ruddy. The fifth is from the car Park outside the ground after a booted clearance clears the stands, and the sixth is two hours after the game has finished, from midway inside the Liverpool coach, on the M1, just past Northampton after a one two with Zaf Iqbal.

    Chelsea

    Win 7-6

    After carelessly promising each of his children he would score a goal dedicated just for them, Raheem Sterling uses the only option left to him by scoring 7 goals. Leading 6-0, Liverpool fans aren’t quite able to relax as Chelsea pull the score back to 6 all. Raheem seals it in injury time though by slotting past Cech despite having both hands covering his face.

    Palace

    Win 2-0

    Injuries to Sturridge, Suarez, Aspas and Moses leave Rodgers with no choice but to bring on Colin Pascoe as player coach. Gasps echo around Selhurst Park when Pascoe is told to strip off from the bench and go onto the field. Given that he was already down to just shorts and t-shirt, Pascoe removes both and plays the whole game in just a jockstrap. The move pays dividends however with Pascoe notching a brace, the second of which sees him adopt the Sturridge dance as a celebration. Selhurst Park watches on stunned at an almost fully naked 51 year old man waggling his arms around like something out of Wizzbit.

    Newcastle

    The title race goes to the last day with liverpool needing a win to wrap up the title. The game is even with no breakthrough until the 80th minute when Martin Skrtel scores 36 own goals. On 90 minutes he then panics and hauls down the ball inside the box. The referee waives away protests that you can’t foul the ball, allowing Newcastle to make it 37-0 from the spot.

    Skrtel redeems himself in the 92nd minute though by scoring 38 headed goals from set pieces, sliding on his knees into the advertsing hoardings each time. Drama ensues at the other end though after Skrtel panics and hauls himself down in the box. With the chance to make it 38 all, Loic Remy sees Colin Pascoe in the corner of his eye preparing to take his shorts off and is put off enough to send the ball wide.

    Liverpool Win 38-37 and wrap up the title, Skrtel wins the Golden Boot.

     

    • Denis 9 years ago

      Kwalitee, Joe.  I’ll have whatever you’re having!  😉

    • fourcandles 9 years ago

      That’s a cracker. I’m going to wake up my wife with all my sniggering in bed. Lovely. Hahaha. 

    • Cianos 9 years ago

      Finally, a bit of common sense being applied to the run in…

      There was an interview with Sterling on the BBC last week taken from Football Focus and he said that he only had one child and that the stories to the contrary in the papers were all made up.

       

    • sheriff 9 years ago

      Superb Joe, particularly the Raheem Sterling bit!

    • NeilM 9 years ago

      Ha ha ha ha Joe, brilliant. I’m crying here (with laughter). Do you mind if I email that to a friend?

      • JoeP 9 years ago

        Go ahead!

      • NeilM 9 years ago

        Cheers! 😀

  47. jjvla 9 years ago

    Does Dr. Peters attend patients privately? Does he offer discounts for LFC fans?

     

  48. windcloud03 9 years ago

    I told my wife that we will travel to Anfield if we win the title.

    Please make my dreams come true.

  49. GoodMan90 9 years ago

    Say we drew against City and Chelsea, knowing how unpreditable they are, will they win all their remaining games too?

    I don’t think they can. 

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      If we draw with City it will be very hard to finish above them. They’re 4 points adrift with 2 games in hand and have the edge on goal difference (though only just), so somewhere we need them to drop 3 points more than we do. If it’s not through us beating them, we’ll need them to draw or lose at least 2 other games. 

  50. johncrowe 9 years ago

    Chris – The TTT poll shows the majority expect 4th place.

    It’s obsolete!

    How about a weekly update vote?I’m happy to start with a vote for second, up from my previous third.

  51. Author
    Chris Rowland 9 years ago

    Chelsea have Stoke at home this weekend, between the 2 CL ties against PSG.

    Chelsea have never lost a home league game under Mourinho. When they do, I’m sure it’ll be against someone unlikely.

    Stoke beat Chelsea at Stoke, with a winning goal by our boy Assaidi.

    Stoke are on a good run and are awkward buggers by nature, with party pooping forming the dominant part of their DNA.

    I wonder … 

    • Neu 9 years ago

      Even a draw would mean that Chelsea would have to beat us to have a chance of winning the PL.

      Say Stoke get that draw, this would mean if we beat Chelsea, the most they could get is 82 points. 3 other wins and we’d pip them on goal difference, ensuring runners up at least…

  52. coxf 9 years ago

    Must say I am not that worried about West Ham. I think our centre halves are more vulnerable to pace upfront than size per se, like the goals Cardiff got. Also quick breaks are liable to leave our centre halves exposed 2 v 2, whereas slow build up play by West Ham allows our midfield to get back to help out the defence.

    Of course with Carroll there is always the possibility that he creates havoc, but I think we can deal with it. We hammered West Ham at Anfield.

    Agger isn’t the quickest, so coming up against a slow attack could suit him.

  53. jono77 9 years ago

    For too long I have said “This will be our year” “Just one more signing…”.  This year I’ve convinced myself we are not going to win it, Champions League position is the best we can hope (my prediction was 73pts and scraping 4th – even thought that was ambitious!). 

    I’ve been keeping my expectations low so not to be disappointed – each week feeling certain we will drop points, then being wowed with our performances as team after team get rolled over.  BR & his team have raised expectations to an almighty high.  I am feeling nervous all week, a mixture of excitement and dread for each game – What if we win?  What if we lose?  Can we do it? 14 wins in a row?  Is this our year?  Will Manure really stick with the legend of Moyes?

    I’m almost at the point where I would hate to finish second, yet I’m still trying to convince people we shouldn’t win it (We just want to finish in the top 4…) or that its Chelski’s ot Citeh’s title. To even entertain the thought that we can win it is crazy considering where we have finished in recent years – logic and stats tell me this. That we are even entertaining the thought of winning 14 games in a row and storming to the tile is truly amazing and illustrates just how far BR has taken us.  My early season prediction was that we would finish strong, winning the last 5 games and drawing to West Ham – 16pts taking us to 87 and finishing where we originally wanted – in a Champions League spot!! 

    To summarise it’s been a hell of a season already and all LFC supporters should feel a huge sense of pride.  BR has surprised us all.  YNWA

  54. Bazz 9 years ago

    I’m really starting to think that we’ll win the league. However, if we even get 3 wins, 2 draws and a loss and finish with 82 points, what an achievement that will have been for the season.

    I think we’ll lose to Chelsea and drop points to one of Palace and West Ham being how they play and maybe a bit of bad luck. Obviously City are amazing but I’m confident of being better at our game at home than anyone else, including them and it’ll be more straightforward than some of the other games. Norwich should be won, but of course we can’t expect them to lie down. How long can they continue taking slaps in the face without reacting to us? And Newcastle should be safe in mid-table and not caring too much other than restoring pride from last year.

    All tough games in their own right. I think we’ll win 4 of them. Can that be enough? Maybe.

    • Beez 9 years ago

      4 wins would be enough for a top three finish, which considering we’d be the first team in the Premier League era to jump from 7th to 3rd, it’s certainly no mean feat!

      The Man City game really is the key, I think. If all three title chasers win this weekend then the City game will, if not decide if we will win the league, certainly go a long way towards determining if we can or not.

      Sports Club Stats have the most likely finishing position for us and City as first at the moment – clearly that can’t happen, so a look at the points breakdowns shows that the only one that favours us more than them at the moment is a clean sweep of 6 wins by us. Anything less and they’re currently more likely to win the title 🙁

      • scousedom 9 years ago

        Beez,

        I’m new to that site…. Is there any way of putting in a given scenario for one team and then working out resultant odds?

        I’d like to know what it thinks our odds are if we get 14, 15 and 16 points, and to be able to see within that how dropping points against City and / or Chelsea affactes things.

      • Beez 9 years ago

        This page shows you our chances based on different points scenarios

        http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Liverpool.html

        It shows you how this week’s result will affect our odds, but I don’t think you can see what difference a win/draw/loss against City (for example) would make to our chances.

      • scousedom 9 years ago

        Thanks Beez,

        It’s a shame we as users can’t look too far ahead…. But then the same is true of the betting markets really; I guess it’s rare to see odds quoted on games 4-5 matches in advance, say.

        However, I”ve taken what I could from the site’s next games outcomes pages and come up with the following based on all potential 27 combinations of outcomes for the weekend. The big conclusions I would say are:

        – Our chances always improve with a win – which sounds obvious, but isn’t, as it means that in the case of both Chelsea and City winning their chances still collectively go down. I take this as reflecting that we have the most difficult task this weekend. Away game and all that.

        – Our chances go above 50% (bold lines) if we win and both the other two don’t win.

        – We move to most likely to win though not with a chance above 50% (italic lines) if we draw and City lose, or if we win and City draw.

        – If I was my boss, I’d really be keeping a closer eye on the amount of work I did of a Friday afternoon.

         

        Start Weekend Chance   Outcome   End Weekend Chance
        MC LIV CH   MC LIV CH   MC LIV CH
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Win Win   48.4 36.9 14.8
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Win Draw   55.4 41.8 2.9
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Win Lose   57.6 43.4 -1.0
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Draw Win   59.6 20.4 20.0
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Draw Draw   66.6 25.3 8.1
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Draw Lose   68.8 26.9 4.2
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Lose Win   64.5 12.8 22.7
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Lose Draw   71.5 17.7 10.8
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Win Lose Lose   73.7 19.3 6.9
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Win Win   29.8 47.8 22.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Win Draw   36.8 52.7 10.4
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Win Lose   39.0 54.3 6.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Draw Win   41.0 31.3 27.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Draw Draw   48.0 36.2 15.6
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Draw Lose   50.2 37.8 11.7
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Lose Win   45.9 23.7 30.2
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Lose Draw   52.9 28.6 18.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Draw Lose Lose   55.1 30.2 14.4
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Win Win   20.4 53.2 26.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Win Draw   27.4 58.1 14.4
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Win Lose   29.6 59.7 10.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Draw Win   31.6 36.7 31.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Draw Draw   38.6 41.6 19.6
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Draw Lose   40.8 43.2 15.7
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Lose Win   36.5 29.1 34.2
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Lose Draw   43.5 34.0 22.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7   Lose Lose Lose   45.7 35.6 18.4
      • scousedom 9 years ago

        Just realised my headers have moved around a bit between writing the post and it becoming a post (at least they have on my browser)…

        To explain, the first three columns of numbers are the chances at the start of the weekend (MC is 48.7%, LIV is 34.5%, CH is 16.7%), then there should be three columns of results (i.e. Win / Draw / Lose) for each team which is the Outcome bit, then there should be three columns of “End Weekend Chance” which is the odds at the end of the weekend based on the set of Outcomes (e.g. under Win Win Win the chances go to MC at 48.4%, LIV at 36.9% and CH at 14.8%).

      • Beez 9 years ago

        Great work, Dom! Are you on Twitter? I’ll probably tweet this later so be good to pass the credit on.

        I’ve hijacked it and put it into LFC chance order. Looks like we can still have a decent chance with a draw this weekend (assuming the other results go for us too of course).

         

        Start Weekend Chance Start Weekend Chance Start Weekend Chance Match Outcome Match Outcome Match Outcome Title Chance % Title Chance % Title Chance %
        MCFC LFC CFC MCFC LFC CFC MCFC LFC CFC
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Win Lose 29.6 59.7 10.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Win Draw 27.4 58.1 14.4
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Win Lose 39 54.3 6.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Win Win 20.4 53.2 26.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Win Draw 36.8 52.7 10.4
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Win Win 29.8 47.8 22.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Win Lose 57.6 43.4 -1
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Draw Lose 40.8 43.2 15.7
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Win Draw 55.4 41.8 2.9
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Draw Draw 38.6 41.6 19.6
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Draw Lose 50.2 37.8 11.7
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Win Win 48.4 36.9 14.8
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Draw Win 31.6 36.7 31.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Draw Draw 48 36.2 15.6
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Lose Lose 45.7 35.6 18.4
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Lose Draw 43.5 34 22.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Draw Win 41 31.3 27.5
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Lose Lose 55.1 30.2 14.4
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Lose Lose Win 36.5 29.1 34.2
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Lose Draw 52.9 28.6 18.3
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Draw Lose 68.8 26.9 4.2
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Draw Draw 66.6 25.3 8.1
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Draw Lose Win 45.9 23.7 30.2
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Draw Win 59.6 20.4 20
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Lose Lose 73.7 19.3 6.9
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Lose Draw 71.5 17.7 10.8
        48.7 34.5 16.7 Win Lose Win 64.5 12.8 22.7
      • scousedom 9 years ago

        Cheers Beez,

        I am on Twitter – @ace_dom… To be honest though, I only really use it for following other people (and the very occasional drunken rant). So no need for name checks if you’re pushed for character-space, I’ll mean nothing to no-one important, and anyone who follows me expecting more than a tweet a month about how crap the trains are will be sorely disappointed!

      • Beez 9 years ago

        Haha, maybe you can do a drunken rant about this?! Credit where it’s due, I’ll squeeze you into the tweet somewhere!

  55. dickyhill 9 years ago

    I’m getting to the point where I might need to take up smoking, day-time drinking or some other vice.  Maybe I can just get myself medically induced into a coma in between Liverpool games.

    This is real.  We’re top of the league, and destiny is in our hands.  What’s more, we’re bloody good.  Not just pretty good, but actually effing amazing.  Each game I think this is where we’re going to slip up.  And then, we don’t.  We’ve had a couple of close games recently, Fulham and Sunderland, that aside we’ve always been at the very least quite comfortable by the end.  This isn’t how title run-ins are supposed to be!

    I’m a little nervous, obviously, but not really nervous.  My emotions are a mixture of impatientience and hope that no bad luck befalls us.  Will Suarez break a leg, Gerrard pick up a yellow card, the ref give or not give an important penalty, etc.  But overall I’m not that nervous!  Brendan isn’t nervous, the players aren’t nervous, why should I be?  I’m just fed up of the fact that normal life is getting in the way of watching Liverpool games.  What am I supposed to do in between?  

    Any player interviewed, and of course the manager himself, says the same thing.  The next game is the most important.  Johnson even talked about “dimensioning” the fixture list into individual games.  This is the right attitude.  Every game is winnable.  Provided we take games on a 1 by 1 basis, the rest will look after itself.

    I loved the Norwich comments, and whole heartedly agree.  Suarez could play by himself and we’ll still win.  This is probably the game when he breaks the record for most goals scored in a single season.  

     

  56. mlleclio 9 years ago

    Fuck knows!!! I’m not a frickin octopus!!

  57. Javelin 9 years ago

    I hate to say this, because I really like the idea of the Symposiums and have found past ones very interesting.  But I think this was a poor choice of question for it.

    Why?  Because when trying to predict the future we all fall back on our experiences of the past – some statistically, some rationally, some emotionally.  But this season is so bizzarre, so different to what has come before that the *rules* (observations) we have come up with to help us predict what might happen no longer apply. 

    This season we are witnessing a paradigm shift.

    This season all bets are off and anything can happen.

    When the season is over we can try to analyse it and see just how far from a typical season it really was, and maybe make alterations to those rules we like to use.  Until then, the predictions that any of us can make are really just guesses.  So why bother – why not just enjoy the ride!

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      But I think this was a poor choice of question for it.

      Well that will be Paul and I’s fault then Javelin! 😉 We were trying to catch the zeitgeist, as is the wont of media worldwide, and thought this was a way to do it. And that it might be fun. And judging by the number of responses, so did our panel.

      Besides, the Symposium panel is so smart, we’ll already have built in this season’s outlier status!

      “predictions that any of us can make are really just guesses”

      Well aren’t they always? Isn’t that basically what they are? And there are plenty of educated and informed guesses amongst our panel, I’m sure you’ll agree!

      • Javelin 9 years ago

        Fair enough – your choice.

        How about this then – since absolutely anything could happen this season no-one has a kitten in Korea’s chance of guessing right, making it a pointless exercise if taken seriously.

        Just ask JoeP – he’s in the right frame of mind 😉

    • Beez 9 years ago

      Thing is, I’m sure this (‘how will we do in the last six games’) would inevitably be discussed on the site somewhere this week, so may as well give it it’s own thread!

      • Javelin 9 years ago

        Yes, I suppose so.  But it’s oddly different with me right now.  Over the past few months I’ve been eagerly devouring everything LFC related as many on here have as well.

        But recently I’ve come to the conclusion that the events so far in this season make it such a statistical outlier that no-one can make a reasonable prediction for what’s going to happen next.  So I’ve sort of become numb to the whole media whirlpool – only the football itself can do any real talking now.

        Come season’s end I’d love to see the complex analysis of just how mad this season was, just how much of an outlier.  But until then, I’ll wait, watch the games, and smile.  There’s nothing more to be done…

      • Author
        Chris Rowland 9 years ago

        Indeed Beez. Part of our job is to offer the chance to reflect what’s exercising Liverpool supporters and offer a platform to discuss it. If we didn’t, other websites would and do, and we look out of touch and lose members. So remaining up to the minute is not just desirable, it’s essential.  And what’s up to the minute amongst our fanbase right now, overshadowing everything else, is whether we can actually do this thing.  Hence this article. Quite surprised anyone would find fault with that really.

      • Javelin 9 years ago

        That is a very good point Chris, well made.  Hadn’t thought about it that way, and it does make sense.  But like I say, I’ve become a bit numb to it all now.

      • Author
        Chris Rowland 9 years ago

        Cheers Javelin, no bother! 😉

      • Beez 9 years ago

        Javelin – it’s interesting you say

        But recently I’ve come to the conclusion that the events so far in this season make it such a statistical outlier that no-one can make a reasonable prediction for what’s going to happen next

        when in reality it isn’t much of a statistical outlier at all. If you look at the table for shots on target ratio, you can see that teams are basically where they deserve to be in the league.

         

        Ratios SoTR 5
        Chelsea 0.646
        Liverpool 0.633
        Manchester City 0.626
        Southampton 0.582
        Everton 0.579
        Arsenal 0.564
        Manchester United 0.549
        Tottenham Hotspur 0.54
        Newcastle United 0.531
        Swansea City 0.519
        Hull City 0.468
        Aston Villa 0.457
        West Bromwich Albion 0.455
        Crystal Palace 0.452
        Norwich City 0.45
        Stoke City 0.412
        Sunderland 0.381
        West Ham United 0.379
        Fulham 0.376
        Cardiff City 0.358

        Now it could be an outlier of sorts that a team like ours (relatively cheap to assemble, injury hit defence, no proper DM etc etc) posts numbers like we have, but it’s not an outlier that we’re at the top end of the league.

      • Author
        Chris Rowland 9 years ago

        Beez if a team came from 7th the previous season to win the league, and the team that won the title last season finished 7th, that would be an outlier right? And if a team won its last 14 games? And scored over 100 league goals? And had 2 players score 20 or more goals?

        There are some very unusual features about this PL season, and most of them seem to revolve around Liverpool Football Club!

         

      • Beez 9 years ago

        Chris – good point, I wasn’t thinking of it like that.

        Though the shots on target ratios for last season suggest that it was more of an outlier that we were 7th and United were top last season, but that’s another story 😉

      • Javelin 9 years ago

        Yep that’s the sort of outlier I’m talking about: I don’t think a team placed 7 or lower has even made it into the top 3 the following season (in the PL era), let alone top – and we’ve been thereabouts for a few seasons now.

        Or what about the record-breaking number of times we’ve scored 4 or more goals?

        Or the madness of the Suarez story – from almost universally hated (outside LFC), banned and ajitating for a move to much admired, widely acclaimed as world-class, and quite possibly breaking scoring records and being named Player of the Season.

        True, most of the anomalies this season revolve around LFC, and so for the majority of the league it’s a typical season.  But since we also revolve around LFC it has been a mad season to us…

    • Author
      Chris Rowland 9 years ago

      since absolutely anything could happen this season no-one has a kitten in Korea’s chance of guessing right, making it a pointless exercise if taken seriously.

      I think you may be missing the point. It’s not about how accurate it turns out to be, it’s about exploring a range of possible scenarios through the eyes of many different people, getting a cross-section of views that build into an entertaining article – which the response suggests it has been. It’s not a search for Truth, as we all know that’s a bit too elusive.

      Just a bit of fun, basically.

    • mlleclio 9 years ago

      OMG! I can’t believe it.  I write a post about this very subject on the other thread because this one seems to have gone to sleep and within seconds this one’s going nuts!  Ach!
      EDIT: And of course, btw, I don’t really mind people conjecturing on ths thread! In fact, I’m grateful for the excuse to express my profoundly passionate view that its impossible (and pointless) to predict the results. For me this is a deep philosophical point that I think has been thoroughly absorbed by Brodge and Peters and is the root of our current success.

  58. skinster6 9 years ago

    I am an Octopus and I find your article amusing. All I can say on the matter is one of you has the answer.

     

  59. soccerlifer 9 years ago

    If we beat City, we’ll win the title. Provided Everton lend a hand and take points off them too. We’ll probably draw Chelsea, but they can’t catch us.

    • thundyr 9 years ago

      I agree here – we must beat City.  And we play them on the 25th Hillsborough anniversary, which is another 96 reasons to win the game.

      If we don’t win all 6 (surely we can’t win 14 in succession?), then we need a hand from one of City’s 7 other opponents over the final stretch to win the league – possibly Everton given that it’s also played on Merseyside.  

      City have failed in two title challenges and snatched one title in the final seconds of Fergie Time.  They also have a very expensively assembled squad, most of whom experienced these things, as well as a manager accustomed to winning stuff.  They have the stars and understand the run-in.  

      We have the team and the togetherness and the desperation, and the other players know this might be Gerrard’s best chance at an EPL winner’s medal and they wouldn’t want to let him down.

  60. markfsb 9 years ago

    It’s a ridiculous question, of course we can’t win it, can’t win 6 more games in a row, City have too much depth, Chelsea have “him”, Everton won’t help us against City, we shouldn’t be on top now, no defence against physical sides like West Ham !

    Who am I kidding ? I can’t go longer than 5 minutes without dreaming of it and all the different ways it could happen.

    Just 6 more drunken stressful Sundays (assuming remaining games are moved) and hangover Mondays to enjoy this season and it’s going to be a thrilling ride. I can’t wait.

  61. paulmcj 9 years ago

    Given the sheer number of statisticians and football historians on here, this fact has probably already been heled out and discussed, but I’ve just read in the Telegraph that the last time both us and Everton finsihed in the top four was 1988.

    Liverpool 1st, Everton 4th.

    I would quite happily cheer the bluenoses on for their last few games if it meant history repeating itself.

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