Well that was annoying, wasn’t it? Liverpool basically had two feet in the final when they were 5-0 up against Roma at Anfield last Tuesday, but by conceding two goals they gave the Italians an outside chance of knocking them out.
Chances of progressing after result of first leg, based on historic results in all European competitions:
5-0 home win – 100% (132 occasions, never eliminated)
5-2 home win – 82.6% (23 occasions, 4 times eliminated) #LIVROM #LFC #UCL— Gracenote Live (@GracenoteLive) April 24, 2018
It’s almost as if three goals is a worse lead for Liverpool than two would be, because three is exactly what Roma overcame in the previous round when they unexpectedly knocked out Barcelona. They also beat Chelsea 3-0 at home in the group stage, and narratives form swiftly around such omens.
That’s before considering some of the defensive collapses which the Reds have undoubtedly exhibited in 2017/18 too. To make their lives far easier on Wednesday night Liverpool need to score at least one goal, so let’s consider some facts.
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