• Featured, Free, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on September 10th, 2014

    Written by Graeme Riley

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    TPI & Transfers – Early Season Update 2014-15

    TPI & Transfers – Early Season Update 2014-15

    By Graeme Riley. As the transfer window closed in early September it was possible to draw the first conclusions about what could be expected for the season based on TPI (Transfer Price Index ©). All figures below are based on current values, so the the latest inflation figures have been applied (using the inflation index [...]

  • By Paul Tomkins, Featured, Transfer Debate, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on August 29th, 2014

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Brits or Foreigners: Who Are Better Buys?

    Brits or Foreigners: Who Are Better Buys?

    By Paul Tomkins. A couple of years ago, with the aid of Graeme Riley’s immense database, I devised the Transfer Price Index Coefficient (TPIC), as a means of measuring transfer success rates. Our work together with TPI – which converts all transfer fees to “current day money” with an index-based inflation model – led to [...]

  • By Paul Tomkins, Featured, Free, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on August 3rd, 2014

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    How Chelsea Ruined Football

    How Chelsea Ruined Football

    By Paul Tomkins. First of all, let me state that, beyond the tense rivalries of recent years, I harbour no grudge with Chelsea Football Club per se. Let me be clear: I am fully aware that it could just as easily have been Liverpool FC that Roman Abramovich purchased in 2003, and then, like any [...]

  • By Paul Tomkins, Featured, Free, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on June 3rd, 2014

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Tomkins’ Law: Only 40% of Transfers Succeed

    Tomkins’ Law: Only 40% of Transfers Succeed

    By Paul Tomkins. The title ‘Tomkins’ Law’ was recently assigned to my transfer theory by Dan Kennett, referring to my observation that only 40% of transfers succeed. (Naming a website after myself may seem vain enough as it is – although it was originally intended to be a solo blog – so I must make [...]

  • By Paul Tomkins, Featured, Free, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on April 11th, 2014

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    The Reds Have Bought Success? No Chance

    The Reds Have Bought Success? No Chance

    By Paul Tomkins. The notion that Liverpool have bought success, as opined by the Manchester Evening News’ Stuart Brennan, is frankly ludicrous. He also Tweeted that:  …while Liverpool do have a couple of home-grown lads in Gerrard and Jon Flanagan, it is outrageous to suggest they have not bought their way to success. Liverpool have [...]

  • By Paul Tomkins, Featured, Free, Transfer Debate, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on January 26th, 2014

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Transfer Records, and Why They Mata

    Transfer Records, and Why They Mata

    By Paul Tomkins. On Saturday, Channel 4’s Economics Editor Faisal Islam tweeted: “No one ever inflation-adjusts “record” transfer fees, do they? Sigh. #mata”. Except, of course, we do. In 2010 I joined forces with über-accountant and statistician Graeme Riley to create the Transfer Price Index (TPI), which converts football prices to ‘modern money’ (or what [...]

  • By Paul Tomkins, Featured, Part Free, Part Subscriber, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on January 15th, 2014

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Money Buys Success: the Proof You Need?

    Money Buys Success: the Proof You Need?

    By Paul Tomkins. A handful of years ago I joined forces with Graeme Riley to create the Transfer Price Index – a way of looking at how football inflation (which we discovered runs much, much faster than standard inflation) affects transfers. From this we worked out the “real” cost of squads and XIs. We then [...]

  • Featured, In-Depth Analysis, Statistical Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on September 10th, 2013

    Written by zslaton

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    Likelihoods From The mSq£R Model – Updated Table

    Likelihoods From The mSq£R Model – Updated Table

    By Zach Slaton. After what seemed like a summer that would not end, the off-season transfer window “slammed shut” last Monday evening, and with it clubs’ hopes of making over their squads in preparation for the next four months of play. The most drawn out transfer of the summer – Gareth Bale to Real Madrid [...]

  • In-Depth Analysis, Statistical Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on August 8th, 2013

    Written by zslaton

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    The 2013/14 Transfer Price Index (TPI) Preview

    The 2013/14 Transfer Price Index (TPI) Preview

    By Zach Slaton. By the time you read this post the data behind it will be out of date. This is always the case with soccer given its global, fast-paced action, but it is perhaps a bigger truism when it comes to player and squad transfer valuations in the middle of a transfer window. Things [...]

  • Featured, Free, In-Depth Analysis, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on November 24th, 2012

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Rodgers, Rafa and Revolutions

    Rodgers, Rafa and Revolutions

    By Paul Tomkins. So, what’s been happening lately? Not much? It’s obviously something of a shock to see a recent Liverpool manager in charge of Chelsea, especially as he wasn’t even considered for a return to the Anfield dugout this summer. As was their prerogative, FSG chose Brendan Rodgers, and it’s up to the young [...]

  • Featured, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on November 4th, 2012

    Written by Graeme Riley

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    TPI forecast November 2012

    TPI forecast November 2012

    By Graeme Riley. At the beginning of September Zach Slaton produced a simulation of all of the results in the Premier League for the whole of the current season, including actual results to date and forecasts based on TPI data. With over six weeks having passed since we last looked at this, Zach has kindly re-run [...]

  • Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on September 14th, 2012

    Written by Graeme Riley

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    Transfer Price Index – September Preview

    Transfer Price Index – September Preview

    By Graeme Riley. With the transfer window now having slammed shut and Jim White being put back into his box until the end of December, it is possible to draw some conclusions about the way the season has started in relation to TPI. The majority of this piece is founded upon the excellent analytical work [...]

  • Featured, Statistical Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on September 9th, 2012

    Written by zslaton

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    The Transfer Price Index Predictions For 2012/13

    The Transfer Price Index Predictions For 2012/13

    By Zach Slaton. Zach is a freelance soccer writer and a Tomkins Times/Transfer Price Index contributor.  He currently writes for Forbes.com, and his work has appeared in Howler Magazine.  He’s run his own blog, A Beautiful Numbers Game, for more than two years. A flurry of activity at the end of this summer’s transfer window punctuated what was [...]

  • Featured, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on August 21st, 2012

    Written by Graeme Riley

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    Transfer Price Index Update – August 2012

    Transfer Price Index Update – August 2012

    By Graeme Riley. With the start of the football season upon us, it is time to revisit the rankings for the teams under Transfer Price Index. Since the transfer window has not yet closed, these figures remain provisional, but all of the figures below are given in 2011-12 prices (this can only be updated for [...]

  • Featured, In-Depth Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Debate, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on June 18th, 2012

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    The Secret to Transfer Success

    The Secret to Transfer Success

    The Secret to Transfer Success.  Aka: The Age of Smart Transfers By Paul Tomkins. The notion that players aged between 20 and 22 make the ideal signings has gathered weight in recent times. Anyone younger may just be a flash in the pan, while older players tend to command bigger wages (because they’re used to [...]

  • Featured, Statistical Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on June 6th, 2012

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Pay As You Play – Liverpool & Rodgers

    Pay As You Play – Liverpool & Rodgers

    Having worked so hard with Graeme Riley in 2009 and 2010 to create the Transfer Price Index, from which we produced the book Pay As You Play (with, I hasten to add, the aid of several wonderful people), other projects have subsequently taken precedence for all involved with TPI. However, the work will not go [...]

  • Featured, In-Depth Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Debate, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on December 13th, 2011

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    What Makes For A Good Transfer?

    What Makes For A Good Transfer?

    There are several preconceptions about football transfers in the Premier League era, and these include the notions that English players are overpriced; foreigners are more skilful but also more flighty; and that experience of the game on these shores is a genuine bonus in terms of future success. Also, speaking more generally, you would expect [...]

  • Featured, Free, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on August 7th, 2011

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    20 Years of LFC Transfers in 2011 Money

    20 Years of LFC Transfers in 2011 Money

    In a recent article I saw reference to Stewart Downing becoming the Reds’ 4th-most expensive transfer of all-time if all clauses were met. While I see nothing wrong with the reporting, it did strike me as unfair on the player, and those behind the decision to bring him to the club. When the British transfer [...]

  • Featured, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on July 17th, 2011

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    ‘Pay As You Play’ New 2010/11 Analysis

    ‘Pay As You Play’ New 2010/11 Analysis

    “Pay As You Play:The True Price of Success in the Premier League Era”, published last autumn, covered 1992 to 2010. This brings several aspects of the analysis up to date. This article is for Subscribers only.

  • Featured, In-Depth Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on June 6th, 2011

    Written by Dan Kennett

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    Your Country Needs You?

    Your Country Needs You?

    April 2nd, 2011. The twittersphere goes into meltdown as a late Chris Brunt penalty allows West Brom and new manager Roy Hodgson to beat Liverpool in a media-fuelled grudge match. A month earlier there was a similar reaction as Liverpool contrived to draw 1-1 at Wigan Athletic. The connection? Both games saw disappointing results for [...]

  • Featured, In-Depth Analysis, Part Free, Part Member, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on May 9th, 2011

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Adios Señor, Bonjour Monsieur

    Adios Señor, Bonjour Monsieur

    Adios Señor, Bonjour Monsieur: A Look At Liverpool’s Forays Into Different Transfer Markets I have to admit that I wholeheartedly bought into the Spanish revolution at Liverpool; so much more than the French one that went before it. The big difference, of course, was that we got the best of Spanish: best manager, best players. [...]

  • Free, Transfer Debate, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on February 17th, 2011

    Written by Dan Kennett

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    TPI: World Record Transfer Fees and LFC

    TPI: World Record Transfer Fees and LFC

    By Dan Kennett. In the light of Liverpool’s recent involvement in the transfer market, as well as being involved in two of the biggest transfers of all time, I thought the time was right to put this into context using Transfer Price Index.  As we all know, Cristiano Ronaldo is the most expensive player in [...]

  • Featured, Free, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on February 5th, 2011

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Benítez, The Great Money Waster?

    Benítez, The Great Money Waster?

    Just when I think I’ve got little new to say about Rafa Benítez and his work at Liverpool, his record comes under attack yet again, and I feel compelled to put that record straight. While Benítez can no longer even be referred to as Liverpool’s previous manager, ‘his’ players have been very much in the [...]

  • Featured, Free, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on February 1st, 2011

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Andy Carroll: Is He Worth It?

    Andy Carroll: Is He Worth It?

    Yesterday marked the third time Kenny Dalglish has broken the English transfer record for a Geordie striker. On the previous two occasions it worked out pretty well. In 1987, Peter Beardsley arrived for £1.9m, and Liverpool turned into arguably the finest English club side seen to date (certainly few have bettered that red vintage). The [...]

  • Statistical Analysis, Subscribers Only, Transfer Price Index ©

    Posted on January 20th, 2011

    Written by Paul Tomkins

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    Back to the Top 4: How Much Investment Required?

    Back to the Top 4: How Much Investment Required?

    Zach Slaton, the author of A Beautiful Numbers Game blog and an Arsenal fan (by trade a mechanical engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt), takes a look at the data from Pay As You Play and calculates how much investment is needed by Liverpool to return to the Champions League.

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